氧化铝周报：氧化铝维持高开工期价延续弱势-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina production remains at a high level, and with the gradual inflow of imports, supply pressure persists, and price pressure on alumina remains significant. However, the alumina futures price has approached the cost line, and as the spot price continues to decline, the loss - making production capacity increases, showing support at the low - price level. The market's willingness to short further is insufficient, and the downward space for alumina is limited, with an expected weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the situation of concentrated production cuts, when alumina may rebound [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/24 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2800 | 2810 | 10 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2956 | 2921 | - 35 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 187 | 144 | - 43 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 319 | 319.5 | 0.5 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 101.91 | 52.63 | - 49.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 221262 | 221257 | - 5 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 72 | 71 | - 1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.36% last week, closing at 2860 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market was reported at 2921 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 35 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - In terms of bauxite, the tight supply of domestic ore continued this week. In the northern region, the supply was tightened due to rainfall, and enterprise ore inventories were at a low level. In the southern inland, the mine operating rate remained low, the market spot circulation was limited, and the ore inventory in alumina plants was consumed, with prices remaining stable overall. Imported ore supply and demand parties were still waiting and watching regarding prices, and there was no obvious adjustment in spot ore prices. - On the supply side, alumina supply changed little. The roasting capacity of an alumina enterprise in Henan fluctuated in the short term, with a limited actual impact on production. As of October 23, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36%. - On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable. Enterprises mainly purchased through bidding, mostly for replenishing stocks, with a relatively low willingness to accumulate stocks, and transaction prices mostly continued the discount trend. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 221,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - On the ore side, the supply situation of domestic ore will mostly maintain the current situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of precipitation on mine operations in various regions. The rainy - season impact in Guinea continues, and rainfall has increased significantly compared with previous years. Floods have occurred in many places in Guinea, affecting ore road transportation and port operations to varying degrees, which has a certain impact on China's import volume, but the current supply of imported ore is sufficient, and prices are stable. On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina has limited changes. Recently, an enterprise in Henan has short - term production cuts in roasting capacity, but the actual impact on production is limited. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable. Enterprises mainly purchase through bidding, and some aluminum plants in the northwest have started winter storage, mostly with price - pressured transactions. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 221,000 tons this week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, alumina production remains at a high level, and with the gradual inflow of imports, supply pressure persists, and price pressure on alumina remains significant. However, the alumina futures price has approached the cost line, and as the spot price continues to decline, the loss - making production capacity increases, showing support at the low - price level. The market's willingness to short further is insufficient, and the downward space for alumina is limited, with an expected weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the situation of concentrated production cuts, when alumina may rebound [6]. 3.4 Industry News - According to data from China Customs, as of September 2025, China's total bauxite imports in 2025 reached 157.637 million tons. In September, the total import of bauxite was about 15.88 million tons, of which about 10.493 million tons were imported from Guinea, showing a slight impact of the rainy season in Guinea. In Australia, the import level was relatively stable, with 3.74 million tons of bauxite imported. - Alcoa recently released its Q3 2025 earnings report. Total revenue decreased 1% quarter - on - quarter to $2.995 billion, with alumina revenue down 9%. Net profit attributable to Alcoa was $232 million. Alumina production increased 4% quarter - on - quarter to 2.5 million tons, and alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons [7]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes charts such as Alumina Futures Price Trend, Alumina Spot Price, Alumina Spot Premium, Alumina Current - to - Next - Month Spread, Domestic Bauxite Price, Imported Bauxite CIF, Caustic Soda Price, Steam Coal Price, Alumina Cost - Profit, and Alumina Exchange Inventory [8][11][14][16][19][21][24]