贵金属周报：避险情绪缓和，预计金银将继续调整-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the international gold price ended a nine - week rising trend and pulled back, and the international silver price also sharply adjusted after hitting a record high. The triggers were the relief of the physical supply shortage in the London market and the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The lower - than - expected US September CPI data on Friday strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts at the end of the month, leading to a certain rebound in gold and silver prices [2][5]. - The fifth round of China - US economic and trade consultations achieved positive progress, and the short - squeeze in the London silver market ended, reducing market risk - aversion demand. Gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, and the mid - term adjustment trend is expected to continue, even if there are rebounds due to data or Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting result on October 30 and the APEC meeting on November 1 [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 938.10 | - 61.70 | - 6.17 | 185813 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 935.33 | - 38.37 | - 3.94 | 55614 | 256570 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4126.90 | - 141.00 | - 3.30 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11332 | - 917 | - 7.49 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 11317 | - 462 | - 3.92 | 955860 | 3645194 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.41 | - 2.22 | - 4.38 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price ended a nine - week rising trend and pulled back, and the international silver price also sharply adjusted after hitting a record high. The triggers were the relief of the physical supply shortage in the London market and the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The lower - than - expected US September CPI data on Friday strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts at the end of the month, leading to a certain rebound in gold and silver prices [2][5]. - The fifth round of China - US economic and trade consultations achieved positive progress, and the short - squeeze in the London silver market ended, reducing market risk - aversion demand. Gold and silver prices have entered a phase of adjustment, and the mid - term adjustment trend is expected to continue, even if there are rebounds due to data or Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting result on October 30 and the APEC meeting on November 1 [3][6]. - The US Federal Supreme Court will quickly review the legitimacy of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and hold oral arguments on November 5. Nearly 50 well - known economists, including two former Fed chairmen, pressured the US Supreme Court to overturn most of the global tariffs introduced by President Trump [5]. - The US federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with about 700,000 federal employees on forced leave. The White House announced that inflation data may not be released next month due to the government shutdown [5]. 3. Important Data Information - The US September CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, falling short of expectations. Core inflation increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest pace in three months, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. This further strengthened the market's expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this year [8]. - The US October Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the services PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8 [8]. - The October eurozone composite PMI was 52.2, higher than 51.2 in September and far exceeding analysts' expectations of 51. The growth was mainly due to the strong performance of the German service sector. Germany's October composite PMI reached a new high since May 2023, while France's private - sector activity has contracted for 14 consecutive months [8]. - Due to lower mortgage rates and slower home - price growth, US existing - home sales rose slightly to an annualized 4.06 million units in September, the highest level in seven months [9]. - In September, global physical gold ETFs had the largest single - month inflow in history, pushing the total inflow in the third quarter to a record $26 billion. By the end of the third quarter, the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs increased to $472 billion, and the total holdings increased by 6% month - on - month to 3838 tons, only 2% lower than the historical peak [9]. - From January to June 2025, the global gold trade volume was 3053.8 tons, the global silver trade volume was 17,000 tons, and the global platinum trade volume was 476.8 tons [9]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings on October 24, 2025, were 1046.93 tons, a decrease of 0.28 tons from the previous week, an increase of 50.08 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 157.15 tons from the previous year. Ishares silver holdings were 15419.81 tons, a decrease of 77.59 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 49.31 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 546.74 tons from the previous year [10]. - For gold futures non - commercial positions, on September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 332,808, non - commercial short positions were 66,059, and non - commercial net long positions were 266,749, an increase of 339 from the previous week [10]. - For silver futures non - commercial positions, on September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 72,318, non - commercial short positions were 20,042, and non - commercial net long positions were 52,276, an increase of 738 from the previous week [11].