钢材周报：宏观情绪回升，期价震荡走势-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows that from October 25th to 26th local time, China - US economic and trade negotiators reached a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues, and will go through respective domestic approval procedures. By 2035, China's economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence will be greatly enhanced, and the per - capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries. The industrial data last week was decent, with the apparent demand for steel products rebounding, driving inventory down. Rebar had good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils still faced inventory pressure due to stable steel production. Considering the above factors, steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating trend. Affected by the relatively strong performance of coking coal and coke during the week, steel futures rebounded slightly. After the release of supply - demand data, steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2950 (+30) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3300 (+20) Yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment was 371535 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%; total retail sales of consumer goods were 365877 billion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [6][7]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 6605 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 12421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [7]. - From January to September, national real - estate development investment was 67706 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 648580 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The floor area of newly started buildings was 45399 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. The floor area of completed buildings was 31129 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3% [7]. - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371535 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 6.4% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.7%, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 15.3%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, water - transport investment increased by 12.8%, railway - transport investment increased by 4.2%, and water - conservancy management investment increased by 3.0% [7]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period: significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deepening of reforms, a significant improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new and major progress in the construction of a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. By 2035, China's economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence will be greatly enhanced, and the per - capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries [7]. - From October 25th to 26th local time, China - US economic and trade negotiators reached a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues, and will go through respective domestic approval procedures [1][4][7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft pointed out that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity - replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1 [7]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their monthly spreads, basis trends, spot regional price - difference trends, steel - mill profit trends, daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils [10][11][13] etc.