流动性风险升温，铅价突破走强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures broke through and rose strongly. The smooth progress of China-US economic and trade consultations provided a good macro - atmosphere. The slow resumption of refineries, better - than - expected downstream demand, and vehicle control due to environmental protection in Henan intensified the short - term supply - demand mismatch. The social inventory dropped to a low level, triggering a soft squeeze on near - month contracts. Although refineries are resuming production and the lead ingot import window is open, it takes time. Before the market supply is effectively alleviated, the lead price is expected to remain volatile and strong [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 17th to October 24th, the SHFE lead price increased from 17,075 yuan/ton to 17,595 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,971 dollars/ton to 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 45.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.66 to 8.73, up 0.06. The上期所库存 decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 3.19 million tons, and the spot premium remained unchanged at - 215 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai lead futures PB2512 had an intraday abnormal movement on Thursday, breaking through 17,500 yuan/ton and continuing to rise. The main contract price increased with increased positions. On Thursday night, the market sentiment was digested, and on Friday, the lead price fluctuated and consolidated at a high level, finally closing at 17,595 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1%. LME lead fluctuated strongly. The easing of China - US trade relations improved market risk appetite, and the slight decline in LME inventory led to a small rebound after stabilization, returning above the 2,000 dollars/ton level, finally closing at 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. In the spot market, as of October 24th, the price of lead in Shanghai market was 17,490 - 17,550 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2511 contract. The high - level consolidation of Shanghai lead made the sellers' enthusiasm for selling average, with few and firm quotes. Due to the expanded price difference between futures and spot, traders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, and the spot circulation in the retail market further decreased. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the high price of lead made them cautious in purchasing, mostly relying on long - term contracts or digesting existing inventories [5]. Industry News - In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the import ore processing fee was - 125 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton. From January to August 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 51,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 17,000 tons in the same period last year. Hebei will control incoming vehicles, affecting the transportation of waste materials and lead ingots of local recycling lead and lead battery enterprises. An East China small recycling lead refinery postponed its resumption of production. Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, an 8% year - on - year increase. In September, the import volume of lead concentrate was 150,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. A Jiangxi recycling lead smelter suspended production in late October [8][9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycling lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][14][16][18][20][22][24][28].