铁矿周报：铁水连续调整，铁矿压力增大-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows the introduction of China's 15th Five - Year Plan and the easing of Sino - US relations, improving market sentiment. On the demand side, last week, steel mill开工率 declined, maintenance increased slightly, and hot metal production adjusted slightly, which is expected to peak and decline in the medium term. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, with last week's overseas shipments rising month - on - month and arrivals falling, both at the highest levels in the past three years. It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - Demand Side: Last week, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week and 2.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points from the previous week and 17.32 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons from the previous week but an increase of 4.21 tons from the same period last year [6]. - Supply Side: Last week, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3333.5 tons, an increase of 126.0 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2825.0 tons, an increase of 94.0 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 15109.49 tons, an increase of 147.62 tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 322.07 tons, a decrease of 7.25 tons [7]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [8]. Industry News - From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment was 371535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%; and total retail sales of consumer goods were 365877 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [9]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 7349 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 6605 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; and steel production was 12421 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [9]. - From January to September, national real estate development investment was 67706 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 648580 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing construction area was 45399 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. The housing completion area was 31129 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3% [9]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - From October 25th to 26th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [9]. - President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea from October 30th to November 1st [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", stating that in key areas, the total iron and steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of iron and steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas or between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, city) shall not be less than 1.5:1 [9]. Related Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, production, inventory, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc [12][14][17].