锌周报：风险偏好修复，锌价弱反弹-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak rebound. The inflation data was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus, and the market risk appetite continued to recover. Domestically, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% was high, and mild policy support at the end of the year was still expected [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the LME0 - 3 spot premium soared to $300, raising concerns about a soft squeeze in the overseas market and strongly supporting zinc prices. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio strengthened the expectation of zinc ingot exports, and the supply growth of refined zinc was limited due to the narrowing profit of smelters. On the demand side, the start - up rate of primary enterprises decreased slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Recently, there were small - scale zinc ingot exports, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Overall, the improvement in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the lower - than - expected US inflation supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the expected mild policy support in China at the end of the year led to the recovery of market risk appetite. The fundamental contradiction centered around the low overseas inventory and strong market structure, as well as domestic zinc ingot exports. It was expected that the zinc price would continue its weak rebound in the short term, but the upside space was cautiously optimistic. The upside space was expected to open up after the large - scale export of zinc ingots [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Price on Oct 17 | Price on Oct 24 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE zinc | 21,815 | 22,355 | +540 | yuan/ton | | LME zinc | 2939.5 | 3019.5 | +80 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London ratio | 7.42 | 7.40 | - 0.02 | - | | SHFE inventory | 109,627 tons | 109,168 tons | - 459 tons | tons | | LME inventory | 38,025 tons | 37,600 tons | - 425 tons | tons | | Social inventory | 16.53 million tons | 16.21 million tons | - 0.32 million tons | million tons | | Spot premium | - 40 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2512, rebounded weakly from a low level, with a weekly increase of 3.48%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc stabilized and trended stronger, breaking through the $3000/ton mark again, with a weekly increase of 2.62% [6]. - In the spot market, after the slight rebound of the futures price, downstream procurement became more cautious, mainly for rigid demand, and most transactions were between traders. The spot premium remained weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 24, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 425 tons to 37,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459 tons to 109,168 tons. As of October 23, the social inventory decreased by 0.32 million tons to 16.21 million tons. The opening of the export window led to some exports [8]. - Macroscopically, the US CPI in September was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%. The core CPI was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%. From October 24 to 25, 2025, the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, and some economic indicators in September were weak [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in November was 3000 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton month - on - month; the average imported ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, an increase of $18.03/dry ton month - on - month [12]. - ILZSG reported that from January to August 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 154,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 138,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to August was 9.152 million tons, and the consumption was 8.998 million tons [12][13]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's overall output of lead - zinc concentrates in the third quarter of 2025 increased quarter - on - quarter, but the Tara mine's production ramp - up was slower than expected, and the Odda smelter's refined zinc output decreased [13]. - Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 318,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Customs data showed that in September, the imported zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The imported refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The exported refined zinc was 2500 tons, and the exported galvanized sheet was 1.2262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27% [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and the start - up rate of downstream primary enterprises [15][18][22][23][24][26].