镍周报：镍市暂无指引，区间震荡延续-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: US inflation pressure is lower than expected, and the market anticipates two more Fed rate cuts this year. A US lending company, PrimaLend, declared bankruptcy due to debt default, increasing market risk - aversion and causing the US dollar index to rise. Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, with a new round to start in Malaysia over the weekend after limited results from the first round [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, leading to weaker shipments. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains abundant, with APNI slightly raising the domestic benchmark price. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, with steel mills reducing production, and raw - material market price - pressing for inventory, squeezing the profit of nickel - iron plants. The popularity of nickel sulfate continues, while the fundamental situation of pure nickel remains weak, with inventory accumulating both at home and abroad [3]. - Future outlook: The nickel market lacks clear guidance and will continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the RKAB approval quota scale. Indonesian mining companies have submitted their 2026 production plans, and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources may announce next year's nickel - ore approval quota scale after review. If the approved quota deviates from market expectations, nickel - price volatility may intensify. Indonesia is tightening control over nickel resources, so the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, providing strong support for the nickel price. However, the fundamental situation shows no significant improvement, with the traditional consumer market remaining sluggish and the actual demand boost from the power - battery end limited, so it's difficult for the fundamentals to drive price changes. Although macro - narratives still affect nickel prices, the current nickel price is mostly insensitive to regular narratives, with limited fluctuation range [3][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 122150 | 121160 | 990 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15361 | 15126 | 235 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 250854 | 250530 | 324 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 26810 | 27042 | - 232 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2550 | 2450 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 650 | 550 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 947 | 947 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 85.3 | 86.5 | - 1.11 | Million tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Macro: US September CPI growth was lower than expected, and the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. Due to government shutdowns, inflation data release was delayed, and the next - month data may not be released. Sino - US trade talks are progressing, with a new round in Malaysia after the first round was fruitless [5]. - Nickel Ore: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from $49/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while that in Indonesia remained at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for laterite nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, and future shipments are expected to decline [5]. - Pure Nickel: In September, China's refined - nickel production was 35,600 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, with a capacity of about 54,198 tons and a 66% operating rate. Profitability improved, with MHP profit margin rising from 3.2% to 4.4% and integrated high - matte nickel profit margin rising from - 4% to - 2.6%. In September, China imported 28,367 tons of refined nickel, a significant 378.86% year - on - year increase, mainly from Russia. Exports were about 14,112 tons, a 33.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 23, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 645.74 Yuan/ton, with a slightly reduced loss [6]. - Nickel Iron: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 938 Yuan/nickel point to 930.5 Yuan/nickel point, a 0.08% weekly decline. In September, China's nickel - pig - iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease, while Indonesia's was 139,900 nickel tons, a 0.14% year - on - year and 0.01% month - on - month increase. As of October 15, the nickel - iron physical - ton inventory was 253,100 tons, a slight increase of about 1,200 tons. In September, China imported about 1.0853 million tons of nickel iron, a 47.19% year - on - year increase, mainly from Indonesia [7][8]. - Stainless Steel: In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a 100,000 - ton increase from last year and flat month - on - month. Indonesia's production was about 430,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production is expected to decrease by 70,000 tons. As of October 23, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 557,300 tons, a decrease of about 4,900 tons. The supply contraction alleviated inventory pressure, but weak terminal consumption dragged down nickel - iron consumption and prices [9]. - Nickel Sulfate: The battery - grade nickel - sulfate price remained at 28,550 Yuan/ton, and the electroplating - grade price at 30,750 Yuan/ton. In September, nickel - sulfate production was 33,971 tons (metal content), a 4.75% year - on - year and 11.45% month - on - month increase. The ternary - material production was about 75,360 tons, a 31.5% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month increase. As of October 24, the high - matte nickel to nickel - sulfate process profit margin was 5.4%, with a slight decline, while other raw - material process profit margins were negative [10]. - New Energy: From October 1 - 19, new - energy vehicle retail sales were 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month increase, with a 56.1% penetration rate. However, due to changes in the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax policy in 2026 and subsidy - policy adjustments, the actual demand may be affected, but there may be a release of pent - up demand at the end of the year [10]. - Inventory: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel is 48,802 tons, an increase of 1,094 tons. SHFE inventory is 26,810 tons, a decrease of 232 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, an increase of 3,242 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 277,664 tons, an increase of 92 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase from the October (Phase I) price [14]. - Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) reported a 18.40% quarter - on - quarter increase in nickel production in Q3 2025, mainly due to increased raw - material processing and higher production at the Kola production base [14]. - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on domestic and international nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24]