Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 20.75 to close at 1041.75 cents per bushel, a 2.03% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 65 to close at 2933 yuan per ton, a 2.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 40 to 2940 yuan per ton, a 1.38% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 19 to 2325 yuan per ton, a 0.82% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to 2470 yuan per ton, a 0.82% increase [5][8] - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. On one hand, the U.S. government shutdown continued, and the suspension of report data release led to a lack of market guidance. On the other hand, the optimistic sentiment of the China-U.S. negotiation heated up, and there was an expectation of an increase in U.S. soybean export sales. Pay attention to whether the U.S. soybean purchase agreement can be reached. The soybean meal stopped falling and stabilized. As the U.S. soybeans strengthened, the crushing profit continued to deteriorate, the procurement of soybeans for the December - January shipment slowed down, and the import cost was supported. As the soybean arrival volume decreased month - on - month, the domestic soybean meal may start a slow destocking rhythm, short - sellers reduced their positions, and the soybean meal rebounded significantly from the low level [5][8] - The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is going smoothly. Precipitation returned at the end of October, and the weather is suitable. The China - U.S. - Malaysia economic and trade negotiations reached a basic consensus on resolving the respective concerns of both sides. Regarding the soybean procurement trade agreement, details are awaited. As the external market rebounded and strengthened, the import crushing profit of Brazilian old - crop soybeans deteriorated, and the pace of ship purchases slowed down, which supported the domestic Dalian soybean meal. The operating rate of domestic oil mills rebounded significantly, the提货 demand increased significantly, and the feed enterprises' inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will enter a low - level volatile operation in the short term [5][12] Market Data | Contract | 10/24 | 10/17 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1041.75 | 1021.00 | 20.75 | 2.03% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 487.00 | 481.00 | 6.00 | 1.25% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 470.00 | 454.00 | 16.00 | 3.52% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | -204.80 | -177.89 | -26.90 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2933.00 | 2868.00 | 65.00 | 2.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2325.00 | 2306.00 | 19.00 | 0.82% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 608.00 | 562.00 | 46.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2890.00 | 50.00 | 1.73% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 7.00 | 32.00 | -25.00 | | Yuan per ton | [6] Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the government shutdown and optimistic China - U.S. negotiation sentiment. The soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded with factors like deteriorating crushing profit and reduced soybean arrivals [5][8] - Analysts expect the U.S. soybean harvest rate as of October 19, 2025, to be 73%, with a forecast range of 61% - 82%. As of the week of October 21, about 39% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [9] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, down from 2.72 dollars per bushel in the previous week [9] - As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% in the previous week, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 27.7% [10] - Abiove predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons, the crushing volume will reach 60.5 million tons, and the export volume in 2026 will reach 111 million tons [10] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week and 165.75 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.9 million tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 500.7 million tons, a decrease of 82.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 41.95 million tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in China was 108,360 tons, including 86,560 tons of spot trading and 21,800 tons of forward trading; the daily average pickup volume was 200,700 tons; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons; the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.95 days [11] Industry News - In September 2025, the U.S. renewable fuel blending quantity increased compared with August, with the ethanol renewable fuel identification code (D6) generation quantity reaching about 1.23 billion and the biodiesel renewable fuel identification code (D4) generation quantity increasing by 20.9% to 660 million [13] - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil reached 51% of the planned planting area in the central and southern regions [13] - In September 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of the EU 27 countries + the UK was 1.576 million tons, the soybean crushing volume was 1.062 million tons, and the total oilseed crushing volume was 3.006 million tons [14] - Canada's AAFC made minor adjustments to the supply - demand data of major grains and oilseeds. The estimated ending inventory of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season remains at 2.5 million tons, with expected exports of 7 million tons and domestic use of 12.226 million tons [14] - The EU Commission proposed to further relax the anti - deforestation law, reducing the reporting burden on many small farmers and enterprises [15] - As of the week of October 15, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 478,400 tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, with cumulative sales reaching 37.9862 million tons. The cumulative export sales registration quantity of soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 12.259 million tons, and that in the 2025/26 season was 1.746 million tons [15] - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons year - on - year, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending inventory will decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons [15] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of the U.S. soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, etc. [16][20][23]
中美达成初步共识，连粕止跌收涨
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-27 01:50