宏观预期回暖，工业硅企稳反弹

Report Summary Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded. The Fourth Plenary Session's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasized green transformation, boosting domestic macro expectations. The polysilicon futures market also lifted market confidence. Supply remained stable with Xinjiang's increased production offset by reduced output in Sichuan and Yunnan. Demand from the polysilicon market fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN in the medium and low-efficiency component market remained strong. Component inventory is expected to decrease slightly in November. Technically, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The industrial silicon futures price increased by 5.81% to 8920 yuan/ton from November 17th to November 24th. The prices of various spot grades remained unchanged, while the prices of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials decreased by 1.77% and 5.88% respectively. The industrial silicon social inventory remained at 510,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for realizing Chinese modernization and promoting high - quality development [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: As of October 24th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 98,500 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week and 2.5% year - on - year increase. The overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 40%. The polysilicon market's sentiment fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN was strong. Component inventory is expected to drop to about 30GW in November, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - Inventory aspect: As of October 24th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 559,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton week - on - week decrease. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48,327 lots, equivalent to 242,000 tons [9]. Industry News - South Korea's exports: Despite the impact of US tariffs and holiday factors, South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of October increased. Semiconductor exports increased by 20.2%, while automobile exports decreased by 25%. The negotiation on the South Korea - US trade agreement is at a standstill, increasing the uncertainty of South Korea's future exports to the US [11]. - Photovoltaic power station: Under Document No. 136, the development rules of the photovoltaic industry have changed. The tendering scale of photovoltaic power station EPC decreased in the third quarter, but the awarding scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Chinese enterprises such as PowerChina and EnergyChina won large - scale overseas projects, and Zhengtai Energy won a 720MW distributed photovoltaic project [12]. Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts on industrial silicon production, exports, inventory, and the prices of related products, providing data support for the analysis [14][20][21]