国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251027

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on October 27, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is limited downside potential, but it lacks upward drivers [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It shows a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the results of China - US consultations [2][7] - Industrial silicon: With the reduction of warehouse receipts, the bottom is relatively well - supported [2][10] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy implementation information [2][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Tracking - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,150, with a change of 770 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,203, a change of 51,282 from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,810, a change of 45 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 186,892, a change of - 6,500 from T - 1 [4] - Other related data such as prices of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, and nickel bean premium are provided. For the industrial chain, data on high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit are presented. For stainless - steel related products, prices of 304/2B coils and 304/No.1 coils are also given [4] - Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [5] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [5][6] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of mining business activity work plans and budgets [6] - US President Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [6] - Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [6] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Tracking - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 78,920, a change of - 460 from T - 1, with a trading volume of 103,581, a change of 764 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 79,520, a change of - 420 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 613,476, a change of 122,556 from T - 1 [7] - Other data including warehouse receipt volume, basis, raw material prices (such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica), and lithium salt product prices (such as battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate) are provided [7] - Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,821 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8] - Australian lithium mining company Pilbara Minerals reported its Q3 2025 operating results. The lithium spodumene concentrate production was 224,800 tons, a 1.7% increase quarter - on - quarter. The sales price of lithium spodumene sc6 was 841 US dollars, a 19% increase quarter - on - quarter [9] - Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Tracking - For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 8,920 yuan/ton, a change of 215 from T - 1. The trading volume was 187,264 hands, a change of 14,918 from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 52,305 yuan/ton, a change of 1,545 from T - 1 [11] - Other data such as basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided. For example, the industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons, a decrease compared to previous data [11] - Macro and Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced that China has reduced the market access negative list items from 328 to 106 after 4 revisions, and cleared more than 4,200 policy measures hindering factor flow [11][13] - The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" put forward measures to break market barriers [13] - Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [13]