国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251027

Report Overview - Date: October 27, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Scope: Black Series of commodities futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the black series futures is dominated by wide - range oscillations. Different varieties have their own characteristics, such as the apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil improving month - on - month, and the expectations of coke and coking coal being volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton (-0.77%); the previous day's open - mouth ore prices of different grades all declined, and the prices of domestic ores remained unchanged; the basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and the two sides reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Trend: Apparent demand improving month - on - month, wide - range oscillations [2] - Fundamentals: For rebar, the RB2601 contract's previous day's closing price was 3,046 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.75%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2601 contract's previous day's closing price was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); spot prices in different regions showed declines to varying degrees; basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 23rd, in terms of production, rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 0.62 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.27 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar was 6.26 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 11.18 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends of increase and decrease [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend: Wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts declined; spot prices of some products increased, such as ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu; basis, spreads and other indicators also changed [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 24th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions showed increases to varying degrees; some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese; as of October 24th, the total manganese ore inventory increased [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coking coal and coke increased; spot prices of some coking coal and coke products increased or remained unchanged; basis and spreads showed different changes [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and the two sides reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [17]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Macro and Industry News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and the two sides reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [21]