油脂周报：马棕高频数据欠佳，油脂震荡偏弱运行-20251027

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]