有色金属日报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. Due to factors such as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, expected dovish statements from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and tight supply in the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or strong - oscillating trend in the short term [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Supply concerns and optimism about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations pushed up copper prices. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.2% to $10,947/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 87,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 575 to 136,350 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories in some regions also changed. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2]. - Strategy View: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and an expected dovish statement from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, sentiment is expected to remain positive. Given the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories, copper prices are expected to continue to be strong. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 86,600 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. On Friday, the LME aluminum closed down 0.3% to $2,856/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased, and inventories in some domestic regions and abroad changed. The downstream procurement sentiment weakened [4]. - Strategy View: After the production suspension of an overseas aluminum plant and considering the low domestic inventory, improved global trade situation, and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate upward. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,100 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum is 2,830 - 2,880 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,592 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of lead showed different changes. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.61 million tons [7]. - Strategy View: The visible inventory of lead ore decreased, and the TC of lead concentrate imports declined. The smelting start - up rate and battery start - up rate showed different trends. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot inventory and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of zinc changed. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.21 million tons [10]. - Strategy View: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased slightly, and the TC of zinc concentrate decreased. The smelting profit declined, and the inventory accumulation rate of domestic zinc ingots slowed down. With a high structural risk of LME zinc and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Tin - Market Information: On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed down 0.42% to 282,550 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and although the start - up rate of smelters increased slightly, it was still at a low level. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the social inventory decreased [12]. - Strategy View: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a tight supply - demand balance of tin, and the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: Last Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel - iron showed different trends, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - Strategy View: In the short term, the significant inventory pressure of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If nickel prices fall enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate also rose [18]. - Strategy View: The downstream demand is strong, and the fundamental situation has improved. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the inventory reduction trend may continue until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure from industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 77,800 - 82,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On October 24, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.95% to 2,821 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount, and the overseas price and import profit and loss were stable. The futures inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Strategy View: The ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. Considering the positive market atmosphere and the price approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.35% to 12,810 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and raw - material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy View: Although the price - support signal from the market is clear, the downstream demand support is weak, and the cost support has declined. The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, so it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose 0.39% to 20,705 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the trading volume increased. The inventory in some regions decreased slightly [27]. - Strategy View: Progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and strong cost support the price, but due to high warehouse receipts, the upward space of the near - term contract price may be limited [28].