宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年10月27日）-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view for both coking coal and coke is to follow an oscillatory approach. Coking coal is expected to run strongly due to strong expectations, while coke is expected to oscillate strongly with support from the cost side [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price Trend: Short - term is oscillatory, mid - term is oscillatory, and intraday is rising, with an overall oscillatory approach [1][5]. - Supply: As of the week of October 24, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17,000 tons. From the 13th to the 18th, the total number of vehicle passages at the Ganqimao Port was 7,220. Political unrest in Mongolia in the middle and late period disrupted port clearance efficiency in the short term, but it is expected to basically recover by next week [5]. - Demand: The combined coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,100 tons [5]. - Market Sentiment: Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 in Malaysia boosted the overall sentiment of the commodity market. Coking coal, as one of the leading varieties since the anti - involution, is still a key variety favored by long - position funds [5]. Coke (J) - Price Trend: Short - term is oscillatory, mid - term is oscillatory, and intraday is rising, with an overall oscillatory approach [1][6]. - Supply and Demand: As of the week of October 24, the combined coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,100 tons; the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, coke inventory increased in the upstream and mid - stream. Independent coking plants' inventory increased by 1,350 tons, and the inventory at four major ports increased by 4,940 tons, while the inventory of downstream steel mills decreased by 6,280 tons week - on - week [6]. - Support Factors: The cost support from coking coal and the warming sentiment of domestic and foreign macro - environments are relatively favorable factors [6].