LPG：上行驱动有限，关注成本变动，丙烯：供需偏宽松，短期偏弱震荡

Report Overview - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "LPG: Limited Uptrend Drivers, Monitor Cost Changes; Propylene: Supply-Demand Loose, Short-Term Weak Fluctuation" [2][3] - Analysts: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LPG has limited upward driving forces, and attention should be paid to cost changes [2] - Propylene supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,258 with a daily increase of 0.52%, and night - session closing price was 4,305 with a night - session increase of 1.10% [3] - PG2601 yesterday's closing price was 4,145 with a daily increase of 0.56%, and night - session closing price was 4,191 with a night - session increase of 1.11% [3] - PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 6,125 with a daily decrease of 0.47%, and night - session closing price was 6,155 with a night - session increase of 0.49% [3] - PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 6,185 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and night - session closing price was 6,211 with a night - session increase of 0.42% [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 59,283, a decrease of 14,169 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 93,555, an increase of 881 from the previous day [3] - PG2601 yesterday's trading volume was 8,224, a decrease of 2,001 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 18,347, an increase of 560 from the previous day [3] - PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 8,525, a decrease of 1,686 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 10,501, an increase of 161 from the previous day [3] - PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 5,168, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 5,251, an increase of 44 from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - The price spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to PG12 contract was 142 yesterday, compared with 164 the previous day [3] - The price spread of Guangzhou imported gas to PG12 contract was 222 yesterday, compared with 224 the previous day [3] - The price spread of Shandong propylene to PL01 contract was - 100 yesterday, compared with - 129 the previous day [3] - The price spread of East China propylene to PL01 contract was - 50 yesterday, compared with - 54 the previous day [3] - The price spread of South China propylene to PL01 contract was - 100 yesterday, compared with - 129 the previous day [3] Key Industrial Chain Data - This week's PDH operating rate was 71.7%, compared with 68.8% last week [3] - This week's MTBE operating rate was 67.8%, compared with 63.1% last week [3] - This week's alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, compared with 45.1% last week [3] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0; Propylene trend intensity is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Market Information - On October 24, 2025, the November CP paper cargo price of propane was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 451 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper cargo price of propane was 465 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [8] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (China Overseas), etc. [8]