新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-27）-20251027

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [2][4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level volatility [3][4] - Silver: High - level volatility [3][4] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [5] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Wide - range volatility [5] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal): Rebound [5][6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly stronger [6] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Wait - and - see [7] Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors including Sino - US negotiations, Fed interest rate cuts, macro - policies, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: The main theme is "abundant supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation". The supply is expected to remain loose, and the demand is weak, especially in the real - estate - related steel demand. Future price changes depend on four main factors [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns in the industry. The core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills, and the second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Short - term attention is on the resonance of macro and industry expectations [2] - Rebar and coil: The static valuation is low, and the core issue is the weak real - estate demand. The stop of price decline depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. The supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the price tends to fluctuate [2] - Glass: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. The contradiction between supply and demand persists, with slow recovery of apparent demand and increasing inventory pressure. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the over - supply problem [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a basic consensus, which has increased risk appetite. Different stock indexes showed different performances in the previous trading day, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market shows a small - scale rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. It is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, US debt issues, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to be in high - level volatility [3][4] Light Industry - Logs: The port inventory is decreasing, and the demand structure shows a north - south difference. The cost support is increasing, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is weakening, and the demand from paper mills is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is average, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Oils and Fats - Edible oils: Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, palm oil inventory, and biodiesel demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue wide - range volatility [5] - Meal: The supply of soybean meal is increasing, but the inventory is decreasing due to strong downstream demand. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5][6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight has increased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker in the short term [6] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw material output in some regions is affected by weather, and the demand from tire enterprises has increased. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: These products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost support. Different products show different trends, with some in a wait - and - see state and some expected to be volatile [7]