谨慎追涨长久期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the buying power of credit bonds may not increase significantly due to uncertainties, reduced cost - performance of some varieties, and potential challenges from the yet - to - be - released official draft of public fund redemption fees. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long - duration varieties and to focus on short - to - medium - term varieties with good liquidity, such as 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds [2][14]. - Bank capital bonds fluctuated narrowly in the secondary market from October 20 - 24, 2025, and performed weaker than general credit bonds of the same term. However, 1 - year short - duration bank capital bonds have fallen out of price - performance and have a coupon advantage, and some bonds in 1 - 2 - year AA and 2 - 3 - year AA+ and above bank capital bonds have absolute yields above 2% and are worthy of attention [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Down Across the Board, Sentiment Spreading to the Long - End - In October 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was repaired. From October 1 - 26, the issuance was 350.8 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 39.9 billion yuan. The subscription sentiment was good, and the proportion of subscriptions over 3 times increased to 64%. The proportion of long - term issuance decreased, and the issuance interest rate decreased slightly [32]. - In the secondary market from October 20 - 25, yields declined across the board, and sentiment spread to the medium - and long - term. The long - term activity increased slightly, with 90 transactions for bonds over 5 years, 15 more than the previous week [35][38]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Increased Significantly Year - on - Year, Both Issuance and Transaction Sentiment Improved - From October 1 - 26, 2025, industrial bond issuance was 588.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 226.4 billion yuan, and net financing was 240.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171.2 billion yuan. The issuance sentiment improved, and the proportion of full - field multiples over 3 times increased from 20% to 30% [40]. - The proportion of long - duration varieties issued increased. The proportion of bonds over 5 years issued increased from 3% in September to 6%. The buying sentiment in the secondary market improved, with the TKN ratio increasing from 72% to 77%, and the low - valuation ratio increasing from 62% to 63% [40][42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Fluctuated Narrowly, Transaction Sentiment Remained Weak - From October 20 - 24, 2025, Weihai Bank issued 2 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds at an issuance rate of 2.60%, and Qingdao Bank issued 1.5 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds (issuance rate not yet announced). - In the secondary market, yields fluctuated narrowly, and 3 - 5 - year small - and medium - sized bank secondary capital bonds performed better. Compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term, bank capital bonds performed weaker, and relative spreads generally widened [23][45]. - The transaction sentiment remained weak. The TKN ratios of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased slightly to 63% and 57%, respectively, but the low - valuation ratios both dropped below 50% [48].