银河期货烧碱周报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market are in a weak balance, and the price trend is stable. The supply side sees some plants resuming operation after maintenance and some enterprises reducing their loads, with overall stable supply. The demand side shows a slight increase in delivery volume to major downstream industries. The stable profit from liquid chlorine reduces enterprises' willingness to adjust prices. Future market trends depend on delivery to major downstream industries and changes in liquid chlorine prices [4]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Comprehensive Analysis: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with stable supply and a slight increase in demand. Liquid chlorine provides profit support, and future trends depend on downstream delivery and liquid chlorine prices [4]. - Strategy: The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Core Logic Analysis - Shandong Alumina Market: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale alumina plants in Shandong is decreasing, and the price has been adjusted downwards several times. As of October 17, the price is stable at 740 yuan/ton, and the current delivery volume is 8720 tons, showing a significant decline [7][9]. - Caustic Soda Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 414,300 tons (wet tons), a 2.73% increase from the previous week and a 37.78% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate is 23.80%, a 0.71% increase from the previous week. Most regions' inventory ratios are rising [13]. - Alumina Market: Most alumina enterprises are operating normally, with no clear maintenance plans except for a roasting furnace rotation plan in a large - scale alumina group in Chongqing. The operating capacity is 9.765 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate is 85.2%. The inventory of alumina in aluminum plants is rising, and the market is under pressure with a downward trend [17]. - Caustic Soda Production: The average capacity utilization rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 10 - 16, 2025, is 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The load has decreased in multiple regions [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Prices: Includes price trends of caustic soda futures contracts, 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as price differences between different varieties and regions [23][25][27]. - Caustic Soda Profit: Shows the profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the prices of liquid chlorine [40]. - Caustic Soda Inventory: Covers factory and market inventories of liquid and flake caustic soda, as well as provincial - level inventory data [42][46]. - Caustic Soda Production: Involves production volume and capacity utilization rate of caustic soda, provincial - level production data, and new production capacity plans [49][51][53]. - Caustic Soda Device Maintenance: Lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda devices in different regions and enterprises [55]. - Caustic Soda Consumption: Presents the demand and weekly consumption of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [57][58]. - Alumina Market: Covers the production capacity, output, and new production capacity plans of alumina, as well as the impact on caustic soda demand [16][61][65]. - Related Industries: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has increased. The printing and dyeing industry has stable operation but a lackluster "Golden September" [67][71]. - Caustic Soda Export: Includes export volume, price, profit, and export destinations of caustic soda, as well as overseas alumina production capacity plans [73][77][82].