南华期货甲醇产业周报：01压力增加-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment was released after the meeting, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly 10 years. Driven by the macro sentiment, the main methanol price first declined and then rose last week. However, from the perspective of the methanol's fundamental situation, the outlook for the 01 contract is not optimistic [2]. - The current shipping volume from Iran is around 800,000 tons. Affected by sanctions, the expected shipping volume in October is around 800,000 tons. The temperature in Iran is still warmer than last year, and the mainstream expectation for plant shutdown is mid - November. Considering Iran's price concessions, the expected shipping volume from Iran has been adjusted [2]. - On the non - Iranian side, the operation rate of Tebah has dropped significantly due to port fees, and it is estimated that the non - Iranian shipping volume will decline to below 500,000 tons, but the actual situation needs further assessment. Chile and New Zealand may fill the gap [2]. - In the domestic market, Baofeng made external procurement inquiries in the second half of the week but did not make actual purchases. Yangmei is expected to shut down for 40 days starting early November. Luxi MTO reduced external procurement due to profit reasons, and Luqing's methanol - to - hydrogen unit was shut down for maintenance for one month, both of which were unplanned [2]. - Overall, the inventory accumulation at ports has started to level off. Due to unloading and sanctions, the inventory endpoint in October has been lowered, but the inventory endpoint for the 01 contract has increased. The import cost is about 100 yuan lower than the 01 contract's futures price [2]. - The short - term trading focus is on the Sino - US negotiation. In October, Iran's shipping volume remained high, reaching 800,000 tons, and the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year [8]. - The long - term controversy lies in how to reduce the port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread. The process is affected by macro sentiment [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The macro - led methanol price movement contrasts with the weak fundamental situation of the 01 contract. Iran's shipping volume, non - Iranian supply, domestic plant operations, and port inventory all impact the market [2]. - Recommendations include reducing the short - put position for the 01 contract and selling call options for the 01 contract [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: No specific content provided. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2279. With high shipping volume from Iran and no vessel pick - up due to port closures, the 01 basis weakened [11]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: As Iran's shipping volume continued to accelerate, reaching 800,000 tons, and with little expectation for early gas restrictions this year, the 1 - 5 spread showed a reverse spread [12]. - Trend Judgment: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term, with the 2601 contract operating between 2250 - 2350. The recommendation is to reduce the short - put position for the 2601 contract and sell call options [13]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Information on inland inventory includes the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), MTO inventory in the northwest, and inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, as well as national plant inventory and net plant inventory [22][26][27]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Information on port inventory includes the weekly inventory of Chinese methanol ports, regional port inventories (such as in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc.), and related data on port to - arrival volume, stockpiles, and shipping volume [37][39][40] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - Hedging Strategy Table: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and entry intervals [63]. - Positive Information: Sanctions have led to some vessels being unable to dock and unload, and importer replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. Lianhong Phase II's 450,000 - ton MTO unit is expected to start production as early as the end of November [66]. - Negative Information: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 800,000 tons so far in October [67]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 26th, Chinese and US economic and trade officials held discussions and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [68]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, the performance of production areas was weaker than that of sales areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week, the prices in production areas declined due to factors such as no external procurement from northwest olefin plants and the intention of methanol plants to maintain low inventory [69]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened mainly due to sanctions on Iran [71]. 4. Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report tracks the prices of coal in Erdos and Qinhuangdao ports, as well as the market prices of methanol in Shandong and Taicang. It also includes information on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [74][76][79]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions are analyzed, along with the profits of MTO units and traditional downstream industries [85][87][90]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The operation rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol), and downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) are tracked, as well as the weekly production volumes of different types of methanol [93][97][102]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, import profits, and price spreads between different regions are analyzed [129][130][131]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operation rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are tracked [135][136][137]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet for 2025 shows the daily and monthly production, import, consumption, and inventory data of methanol, including different production types (CTO, non - CTO), demand sectors (MTO, non - MTO), and inventory in ports and inland areas [138]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in the domestic methanol industry, some plants in North China increased their operation rates, some in Central China recovered, and in the Northwest, there were both restarts and shutdowns for maintenance [139]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units such as Xingxing and Chengzhi resumed or increased their operation rates. New demand projects like Lianhong Phase II's MTO unit are ahead of schedule and have started stockpiling. Iran maintains a high shipping volume [140].