Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers trend intensities for each commodity, which are classified as follows: | Commodity | Trend Intensity | | --- | --- | | Gold | -1 | | Silver | -1 | | Copper | 1 | | Zinc | 0 | | Lead | 0 | | Tin | 0 | | Aluminum | 0 | | Alumina | 0 | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 0 | | Nickel | 0 | | Stainless Steel | 0 | | Lithium Carbonate | 0 | | Industrial Silicon | 1 | | Polysilicon | 1 | | Iron Ore | 0 | | Rebar | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | 0 | | Silicomanganese | 0 | | Coke | 1 | | Coking Coal | 1 | | Log | 0 | | p - Xylene | 1 | | PTA | 1 | | MEG | 1 | | Rubber | 0 | | Synthetic Rubber | 0 | | Asphalt | 0 | | LLDPE | 0 | | PP | 0 | | Caustic Soda | -1 | | Pulp | 0 | | Glass | 0 | | Methanol | 0 | | Urea | 0 | | Soda Ash | 0 | | LPG | 0 | | Propylene | 0 | | PVC | -1 | | Fuel Oil | 1 | | Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | 1 | | Container Freight Index (European Route) | 0 | | Staple Fiber | 1 | | Bottle Chip | 1 | | Offset Printing Paper | 0 | | Pure Benzene | 0 | | Palm Oil | 0 | | Soybean Oil | 0 | | Soybean Meal | 0 | | Soybean | 0 | | Corn | 0 | | Sugar | -1 | | Cotton | 0 | | Egg | 0 | | Live Pig | 0 | | Peanut | 0 | 2. Core Views - Macroeconomic Factors: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have reached a basic consensus on solving each other's concerns, which has an impact on the market sentiment and expectations of various commodities [5][9][14][157]. - Commodity - Specific Factors: Each commodity's market situation is affected by its own supply - demand relationship, inventory levels, production costs, and policy factors. For example, the price of copper is rising due to improved macro - sentiment and increased imports; the price of zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; the price of lead is supported by inventory reduction [2][5][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine crisis has led to a decline in gold prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][5]. - Silver: It shows a volatile rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2]. Base Metals - Copper: The price is rising due to improved macro - sentiment. Chile's state - owned copper company plans to increase the premium for European customers, and China's copper imports in September have changed. The trend intensity is 1 [2][10]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction of inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][17]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The trend intensity is 0 [2][19]. - Aluminum: The price center is moving up. Alumina's production reduction is not continuous, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [2][23]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore are in a game, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drive. The trend intensity of both is 0 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: It shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the result of the Sino - US consultations should be noted. The trend intensity is 0 [2][29]. - Industrial Silicon: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support for the bottom. The trend intensity is 1 [2][32]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. The trend intensity is 1 [2][33]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [2][36]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity of both is 0 [2][38]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by the resonance of the sector sentiment, they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity of both is 0 [2][42]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The expectations are changing repeatedly, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity of both is 1 [2][47]. - Log: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49]. - p - Xylene: It rebounds following the oil price, and PXN should be shorted on rallies. The trend intensity is 1 [2][53]. - PTA: It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a unilateral upward trend. The trend intensity is 1 [2][53]. - MEG: The demand expectation has improved, and it has a short - term rebound. The trend intensity is 1 [2][53]. - Rubber: It oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][59]. - Synthetic Rubber: Supported by macro - sentiment, the price center is moving up. The trend intensity is 0 [2][63]. - Asphalt: It oscillates following the crude oil. The trend intensity is 0 [2][67]. - LLDPE: It mainly oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][81]. - PP: The trend remains weak. The trend intensity is 0 [2][85]. - Caustic Soda: The far - month valuation is suppressed. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][89]. - Pulp: It oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][94]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [2][98]. - Methanol: It oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][101]. - Urea: It oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][106]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is 0 [2][111]. - LPG: The upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The trend intensity is 0 [2][115]. - Propylene: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and it shows a short - term weak oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][116]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][123]. - Fuel Oil: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to shrink. The trend intensity of both is 1 [2][126]. Agricultural Products - Container Freight Index (European Route): It is in an oscillatory consolidation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][128]. - Staple Fiber: The demand has a positive feedback, with a short - term rebound and an expanding PF - PR price difference. The trend intensity is 1 [2][138]. - Bottle Chip: It has a short - term rebound and an expanding PF - PR price difference. The trend intensity is 1 [2][138]. - Offset Printing Paper: It oscillates at a low level. The trend intensity is 0 [2][141]. - Pure Benzene: It mainly oscillates in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [2][146]. - Palm Oil: The inventory reduction in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower - level support. The trend intensity is 0 [2][150]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is favorable, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US economic and trade relations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][150]. - Soybean Meal: It rebounds and oscillates, waiting for the guidance of the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The trend intensity is 0 [2][157]. - Soybean: It is in an adjustment oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][157]. - Corn: It oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [2][160]. - Sugar: It runs weakly. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][164]. - Cotton: The increase in the cost of new cotton supports the cotton futures price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][169]. - Egg: It oscillates and adjusts. The trend intensity is 0 [2][173]. - Live Pig: The spot price has short - term support. The trend intensity is 0 [2][175]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [2][179].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251027
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-27 02:32