中辉有色观点-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Copper: Long-term holding ★★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound ★ [1] - Lead: Strong ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound ★ [1] - Aluminum: Strong ★★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish ★★ [1] Report's Core View - The long-term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Short-term fluctuations are affected by factors such as Sino-US relations and geopolitical situations [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with cautious chasing of highs. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and potential demand growth [1][7]. - Zinc is expected to have limited upside after the short-term macro - policy stimulus fades, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as inventory depletion and cost support [1][14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Sino-US relations eased, market risk aversion subsided, and gold and silver prices continued to adjust [2]. - Basic Logic: Sino-US negotiations achieved results, US data supported further interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and the French political crisis were complex, and gold is expected to have a long - term bull market [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: The long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Short - term attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver stop falling. Domestic gold pays attention to the 930 support, and silver pays attention to the effectiveness of the 11000 support [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and the center of gravity continued to move up [6]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and downstream demand was affected by factors such as real estate and infrastructure [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the super macro week, it is recommended to continue to hold copper long positions, be cautious about chasing highs, and use trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long term, copper is still optimistic [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc oscillated narrowly overnight, with insufficient upward momentum [9]. - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was loose, demand was weak, and overseas LME zinc inventory increased slightly [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc continued to rebound, but the overall demand was weak. In the medium - to - long term, it is still a short - side allocation in the sector [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro - interest rate cut expectations continued. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina market was in an oversupply pattern [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances weakened, domestic pure nickel inventory increased significantly, and stainless steel market inventory increased, with weak downstream demand [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, encountered resistance and fell back after rising to 81,000, and the gains narrowed at the end of the session [20]. - Industrial Logic: The fundamentals improved significantly, with continuous inventory reduction for 10 weeks, strong terminal demand, and a positive feedback loop in the industry was expected to form [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of [78800 - 82000] [22].