20251027申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference for zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - session copper prices closed slightly lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 87,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,947 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory was 136,925 tons, with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, power grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 187.37 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, with a daily decrease of 600 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, smelting output is expected to rise, galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,205 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,857 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 3.19 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory was 477,675 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,850 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,860 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,390 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,325 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 194.12 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory was 250,854 tons, with a daily decrease of 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,635 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 36.64 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 283,810 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,470 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,650 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 143.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory was 2,720 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].