中辉黑色观点-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different varieties are as follows: - Prudently Bullish: Threaded steel, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - Short-term Participation: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: Macro factors provide support, and prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: Negative feedback contradictions are accumulating, and ore prices are under pressure [7]. - Coke: Follows the coking coal price range [10]. - Coking Coal: Supply-side disturbances are present, and prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term [14]. - Ferroalloys: The upward driving force is limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing prices [18]. Summary by Variety Threaded Steel - View: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory has continued to decline. However, current supply and demand are both lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, the inventory reduction speed is average, and overall supply and demand are weak, with limited upward driving force [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: Driven by the new rules for capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may fluctuate and be relatively strong in the short term [1][5]. Hot-rolled Coil - View: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: Although the current molten iron production is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may be relatively strong in stages in the short term due to policy support [1][5]. Iron Ore - View: Molten iron production has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. However, the shipment of foreign ores has increased at a high level, while the arrival has significantly decreased. Steel enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral. The post-festival inventory pressure at the downstream finished product end is gradually emerging, and concerns about industrial negative feedback have increased [1][8]. - Operation Suggestion: Participate in the short term [1][9]. Coke - View: The second round of price increases is expected to be implemented this week, and the market still anticipates a third round of price increases, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Recently, coke enterprise profits have decreased, but spot production remains relatively stable. Molten iron production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is good. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced and follow the coking coal price range [1][12]. - Operation Suggestion: Prudently bullish [1][13]. Coking Coal - View: Coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the supply side has been significantly affected by safety inspections and overproduction verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron production is high, and raw material demand is guaranteed. Currently, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with few contradictions. Supply-side disturbances in the production areas support the market performance, and prices may be relatively strong in the short term [1][16]. - Operation Suggestion: Prudently bullish [1][17]. Ferromanganese - View: The production area supply level remains at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel tenders, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [1][20]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, the cost side temporarily provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious when chasing prices [1][21]. Ferrosilicon - View: Both supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt has maintained a downward trend. Pay attention to the situation of re-storage after cancellation [1][20]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to follow the coal price range in the short term. Be cautious when chasing prices [1][21].