格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20251027

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - Dates: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - Rubber Series: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - Market Review: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - Important Information: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - Market Logic: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - Trading Strategy: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - Market Review: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - Important Information: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - Market Logic: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - Trading Strategy: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - Market Review: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - Important Information: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - Market Logic: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].