申银万国期货首席点评：中美双方达成基本共识

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on addressing respective concerns, and both sides agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [1][6]. - The US CPI data in September showed a certain trend, with the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI and core CPI having different performances compared to expectations and previous values [1]. - For key varieties: - Copper prices are under short - term pressure, but the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Gold prices have experienced a sharp adjustment after a rapid rise, but the long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains strong [2][19]. - The stock index is in a direction - selection stage. With a loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. 3. Summary by Category News - International News: The US and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, and the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam while working to address obstacles for US agricultural products in the Vietnamese market [5]. - Domestic News: China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on multiple important issues [1][6]. - Industry News: As of the end of September, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [7]. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.33%, and the US dollar index rose 0.01%. Among commodities, LME copper rose 1.20%, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.41% [9]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: Positive news from China - US tariff negotiations led to a rise in US stock indices and the domestic stock index. After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the easing of risk - aversion sentiment may put pressure on prices [11][12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 0.3% at night. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian crude oil transportation [13]. - Methanol: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The operating load of coal - to - olefin and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile [14]. - Rubber: Natural rubber prices rose last week. Supply pressure may increase later, but weather conditions in rubber - producing areas and the progress of China - US trade negotiations will affect prices [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins may have a short - term oscillatory rebound [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures had a slight decline. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17][18]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fell from high levels. Geopolitical risks decreased, and although the long - term bullish logic for gold remains, short - term adjustments occurred [2][19]. - Copper: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is growing. The Indonesian mine accident may support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell at night. Smelting output is expected to increase, and domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The market may fluctuate within a range [21]. - Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly on Friday night. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel inventory reduction, hot metal production, and policy guidance [22]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strongly volatile at night. US soybean export inspection volume increased, and Brazilian soybean planting progressed well. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - Oils and Fats: Bean and rapeseed oil prices rose, while palm oil prices fell slightly at night. Palm oil production and export data showed an increase, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weakly volatile. The global sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton prices were strongly volatile. The US cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [27]. - Shipping Index - European Container Shipping: The European container shipping index opened higher and oscillated. Shipowners are actively supporting prices at the end of the year, but the market is cautious about the peak - season space. The far - month contract is slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [28].