Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent's December contract rising 7.09%. Short - term crude oil is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the rebound height is limited [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver continued to fluctuate and adjust. The market maintains the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year. Precious metals are in a high - level shock phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Copper - Both domestic and foreign copper prices continued to rise. Copper has the potential to hit a record high, but high prices are affecting domestic consumption. It is advisable to trade on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum was volatile and slightly stronger on Friday. Although it is breaking through the previous high and showing a strong - side shock, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,700 yuan. It continues to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market for now [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. It is mainly in a weak operation [6] Zinc - LME zinc rebounded to the $3,000 integer mark. The domestic and foreign fundamentals are different, and the short - term rebound height of Shanghai zinc is determined by zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [7] Lead - The domestic lead market has tight supply. After the lead price rises, downstream purchasing sentiment drops. Further upward movement requires the joint drive of inventory and funds [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock. The downstream demand recovery is limited during the peak consumption season, and the overall price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down [9] Tin - The price of tin fluctuated and declined last Friday night. Pay attention to the supply rhythm after the maintenance and shipment of leading smelters, and wait for the entry opportunity [10] Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading warmed up. Technically, it is strengthening in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 80,000 yuan [11] Industrial Silicon - In November, the power price in the southwest production area is rising, and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan are highly likely. The short - term spot price is under pressure, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [12] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations and maintains a volatile trend [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was volatile last week. Supply is strong, and demand has a downward pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [15] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the steel profit is average. The coke price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. Affected by factors such as political instability in Mongolia and safety inspections, the price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [17] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The overall demand is okay, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices strengthened on Friday night. Demand is picking up, but the overall domestic demand is still weak. The futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term [14] Asphalt - BU continued to rise. The supply and demand both decreased this week, and the market is in a tight - balance pattern. The rising cost helps to consolidate the upward trend [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The external price stabilized and rebounded. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil has boosted LPG [22] Urea - The demand for urea in agriculture has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [23] Methanol - The port inventory has increased slightly. In the short term, it may fluctuate within a range, and in the long - term, it may be volatile and slightly stronger [24] Pure Benzene - The price of benzene rebounded last week. Supply and demand both decreased. In the medium - term, high imports are the main pressure [25] PVC and Caustic Soda - The inventory accumulation of PVC has slowed down, and it may operate in the bottom - range. Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [26] PX and PTA - PX and PTA follow the oil price trend. The terminal situation is improving, but if the oil price weakens, PTA may face inventory accumulation [27] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased, but the output has increased. In the short - term, the negative factors in the fundamentals have eased, and in the medium - term, inventory accumulation is expected [28] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again. The demand for bottle chips has weakened seasonally, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [29] Glass - The glass spot price continued to decline. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The decline range is expected to be limited, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money put options [30] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is large, and the strategy is to rebound from oversold conditions [31] Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating in a low - level range. It is advisable to be cautious when the price is near the cost and prefer to short at high levels after a rebound [32] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The overall soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. It is recommended to wait and see and look for long - entry opportunities [33] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, be cautious about the callback of palm oil prices and the adjustment risk of the oil - meal ratio. In the long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oils on dips [34] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The main contract of rapeseed products is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the cross - competitor strategy with rapeseed products as the short side [35] Domestic Soybeans - The price of domestic soybeans fluctuated. The auction results were good. Pay attention to the impact of the spread between domestic and imported soybeans and policy guidance [36] Corn - Corn futures were weakly volatile on Friday night. The supply is loose, and Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [37] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounded over the weekend. Although there is still supply pressure, consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. After the rebound, it is advisable to short on rallies [38] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded. In the short - term, pay attention to risk avoidance, and in the medium - term, there may still be a decline [39] Cotton - US cotton is expected to have weak demand. Domestic cotton futures rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [40] Sugar - US sugar is oscillating. The international sugar supply is sufficient. The domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [41] Apples - Apple futures are strongly operating. The market focuses on the cold - storage inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [42] Wood - Wood futures are oscillating. The supply and demand situation has improved, and it is advisable to maintain a long - biased thinking [43] Pulp - Pulp rebounded last week. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [44] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market rose, and the futures index contracts all closed up. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [45] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve steepening is expected to end for now [46]
综合晨报-20251027
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-27 03:28