铜周报：铜价上涨趋势不变，逢低布局多单-20251027

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. Buy long positions on dips [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price has reached a resistance level near the previous high. In the future, the callback range of copper may become smaller, and it is likely to break through upwards. It is recommended to buy long positions in batches on dips [9] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Macro - aspect: Sino - US leaders maintain close contact. There were economic and trade consultations between China and the US from October 24th to 27th, 2025, in Malaysia. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit [5] - Supply - side: - Copper Ore: In September 2025, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, with a cumulative import of 2,263.4 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances increased, and the output of Grasberg and QB Phase II was lower than expected. On October 24th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.73 dollars/ton from the previous period. Port inventory increased to 67.81 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.26 million physical tons from the previous period [7] - Scrap Copper: Import of scrap copper has tightened in some regions. Since July this year, Uzbekistan has imposed a 100% tariff on scrap metal exports (including scrap copper). In the domestic market, due to the suspension of production in most recycled copper rod factories in Jiangxi waiting for the tax refund policy, the demand for含税 recycled copper raw materials in Jiangxi is strong. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 19.59 million tons of scrap copper, with a cumulative import of 169.89 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [7][42] - Refined Copper: In September 2025, the electrolytic copper output was 112.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 million tons or 4.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. From January to September, the cumulative output increased by 109.55 million tons or 12.22%. SMM expects the output in October to decrease by 3.85 million tons or 3.43% month - on - month, and there is a probability that the output in November will continue to decline [7] - Demand - side: From the terminal perspective, domestic demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning have declined significantly. The main support for the later market comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. The consumption peak season is not prosperous, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. Purchases increase when the price is below 85,000 yuan/ton [6] - Inventory and Spread: - The comex - lme spread remains at 3% - 4%. South American copper is still being shipped to the US in large quantities. The LME copper inventory has decreased to 13.7 million tons, and the comex inventory has increased to over 34 million tons. As of October 23rd, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 18.16 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 0.41 million tons compared with last Thursday. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons [9] - In the long term, when the non - US supply is generally tight and the inventory declines, consider inter - period positive spreads, mainly buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts. When the comex continues to attract South American copper, the LME inventory growth is relatively slow, and the export window may open periodically. It is recommended to exit the inter - market positive spreads position periodically after the export window opens and then re - enter at an appropriate time [9] 2. Price Trends of Domestic and Overseas Markets - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices from 2024 to 2025, such as changes in tariffs and production plans [11][12] 3. Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - Copper Concentrate Market: - In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 193.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.47%. Peru's copper production in August 2025 was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In the first 8 months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 181 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [32] - In August 2025, Chile's copper production decreased due to the collapse of a new mine area of El Teniente [32] - Scrap Copper Market: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,798 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 18.69%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 8.8 percentage points year - on - year [38] - Crude Copper Market: In July 2025, the crude copper output was 105.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of anode copper was 57.87 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58%. On October 24th, the average domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44][48] - Domestic Copper Supply: From January to September 2025, China imported 254.16 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%. From January to September, China exported 48.95 million tons of refined copper [53] - Downstream Operating Rates: - In September 2025, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises was 70.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 percentage points. It is expected to be 63.35% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 67.68%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.33 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.34% in October [59] - In September 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.15 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.66% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 72.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. It is expected to rise to 72.3% in October [59] - In August 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 82.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.73 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.54 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise to 83.72% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of SMM copper plate and strip enterprises was 66.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37 percentage points. It is expected to be 65.11% in October [59] - Consumption Areas: - Air - conditioning: From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of air - conditioners were 15,257 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales of Chinese household air - conditioners were 1,302.3 million units, a year - on - year slight decline of 1.0%. In October 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 1,153 million units, a decrease of 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [64] - Automotive: In September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [68] - Power Grid Investment: From January to August 2025, the cumulative investment in China's power grid was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. From January to August, the investment in power - source projects of major power - generation enterprises nationwide was 499.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [72] - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. From January to September, the completed area of national housing was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [77] - Overseas Data: - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the US were 1.0983 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.99% [89] - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the world were 9.625 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [89] - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: - From January to August 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 90.62GW or 64.73%. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised this year's new installed capacity forecast to 270 - 300GW [83] - From January to August 2025, China's new wind - power installed capacity was 57.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 72.09%. It is expected that China's new wind - power installed capacity this year will be about 105 - 115GW [83] - Industry News and Macro Data: - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd, studying suggestions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" [90] - China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [90] - Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed deep concern about the continuous decline of copper processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [90] - In September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.3% [90] - From January to September 2025, Zijin Mining's mineral copper production was 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [90] - China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [90]