黑色板块日报-20251027

Report Overview - The report is the Shan Jin Futures' daily report on the black sector, covering steel products like rebar and hot-rolled coil, as well as iron ore, with updates as of October 27, 2025 [1][2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar and hot-rolled coil, the apparent demand for rebar has continued to rise but remains weaker than the same period last year, production has increased, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory is much higher than the same period. With strong coking coal and coke prices supporting costs, but falling steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production, leading to a potential negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices may have ended their downward trend. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly and take profits when prices fall [2]. - For iron ore, although the sample steel mills' molten iron production remains high, supporting demand, falling steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are high, and rising port inventories during the peak consumption season are pressuring futures prices. Technically, the 01 contract has a slight rebound, facing resistance from the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages. It is recommended to hold short positions and beware of the impact of a rebound in rebar prices [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Rebar's apparent demand is rising but weaker than last year, production is up, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coil inventory is much higher than the same period. Coking coal and coke prices support costs, but falling steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak may lead to production cuts [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have broken through the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly and take profits when prices fall [2]. - Data: Futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and other data for rebar and hot - rolled coil are provided, showing changes in prices, production, and inventory levels [3] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: High molten iron production supports demand, but falling steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing prices. Global shipments are high, and rising port inventories during the peak consumption season are pressuring prices [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract has a slight rebound, facing resistance from the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions and beware of the impact of a rebound in rebar prices [5]. - Data: Futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, shipping volumes, freight rates, inventory, and other data for iron ore are provided, showing changes in prices, supply, and inventory levels [5] 3.3 Industry News - In mid - October, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and steel products increased by 0.8% month - on - month [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on capacity replacement ratios and regional transfers [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 949.87 million tons, a 1.34% decrease from last week [8]. - Shanxi is increasing coal production and supply, with a 3.7% year - on - year increase in the output of above - scale raw coal in the first three quarters, accounting for about 27.3% of the national output [8]