豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20251027

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 27 - 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Reported futures varieties: Soybean meal and soybean oil [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The high inventory and high operation rate of oil mills continuously suppress the spot price, and the poor downstream breeding profit leads to cautious procurement by feed enterprises, resulting in weak demand - side support. However, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal becomes apparent after the price drops to a low level, and the expected monthly decline in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter provides bottom support. [6] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, the operation rate was 59.59%, and the soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons. [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in a downward channel, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, M2601 may continue the oscillation and consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2,800 - 3,000. [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the capital is relatively bullish. In the short term, M2601 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation phase, with an expected operating range of 2,880 - 3,050. [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean meal production, weekly soybean meal inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, soybean meal basis, and oil - meal ratio. [18][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The sufficient arrival of domestic soybeans, high operation of oil mills, and high commercial inventory (although it decreased slightly week - on - week) combined with weak demand, but strong exports and potential benefits from US biodiesel policies make soybean oil relatively strong among oils and fats. [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 42nd week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 41,160 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons. [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, the progress of US biodiesel, and the promotion rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy. [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, and the capital was slightly bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may be in a range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. In the short term, Y2601 may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern. [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes: Weekly soybean oil production, weekly soybean oil inventory, soybean oil basis, soybean oil trading volume, weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. [43][47][50][55][58]