Huachuang Securities·2025-10-27 03:35Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply growth is slowing due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditure, which has decreased significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015. In 2021, global oil and gas capital expenditure was $351 billion, down nearly 22% from the 2014 peak. Major energy companies are cautious about capital spending due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures [9][27][28] - The Brent crude oil spot price was $63.48 per barrel, up 1.25% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil was $59.31 per barrel, up 1.75% week-on-week. The outlook suggests that oil prices will remain volatile due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production cuts [10][32] Crude Oil - The report indicates that the overall supply of crude oil is limited, with demand remaining resilient. The OPEC+ production cuts are expected to continue, leading to limited supply growth in the coming year [9][27] - The report suggests focusing on companies that benefit from mid-to-high oil price fluctuations, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Sinopec [10][49][50] Coal - The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 757.9 yuan per ton, up 4.84% week-on-week. The increase in demand due to falling temperatures and the tightening of supply due to safety inspections at coal mines are driving coal prices higher [11][12] - The report highlights companies with strong resource endowments and integrated operations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as potential investment opportunities [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing slight increases due to ongoing demand from steel companies, despite some resistance to high-priced coal. The price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1,760 yuan per ton, up 2.92% week-on-week [14] - The report emphasizes the structural scarcity of high-quality coking coal resources in China and suggests focusing on companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group that have strong resource acquisition capabilities [14] Natural Gas - The European Union is expected to ban Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, which has led to an increase in natural gas prices. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. was $3.41 per million British thermal units, up 13.0% week-on-week [15][16] - The report notes that the EU's price cap agreement on natural gas could exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services industry is expected to maintain its prosperity due to government policies supporting energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies was 583.3 billion yuan, with CNOOC showing a compound growth rate of 13.1% [17][18] - The report indicates that the number of active drilling rigs globally was 1,812, with a slight increase in the U.S. and Middle East regions, suggesting a stable demand for oilfield services [18]