南华期货玉米、淀粉产业周报：供应压力继续释放-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Market Situation: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - Trading Logic: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Forecast: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - Risk Strategies: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - Negative Information: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - International Market: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - Domestic - International Spread: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - Basis Structure: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - Spread Structure: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - Planting Profit: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - Trading Profit: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - Deep - processing Profit: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - Disk Profit: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - China: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - Global: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Domestic: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - Foreign: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Feed Demand: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - Deep - processing Demand: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].