贵金属周报：金价巨幅震荡不改中长期牛市格局-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metal prices last week does not reverse the medium - to long - term bull market for gold and silver, and the core factors supporting the bull market remain [2] - The short - term decline in precious metal prices was triggered by the progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the change from short squeeze to long - killing - long in the silver market, with the fundamental reason being the excessive and rapid price increases [2] - Although the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a short - term negative for gold prices, the overall global situation of de - globalization, conflicts, Fed's new round of interest rate cuts, and central banks' de - dollarization will support gold prices in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Sharp Decline in Precious Metal Prices Last Week - The direct trigger was the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation, which reduced market risk - aversion sentiment, and the change from short squeeze to long - killing - long in the silver market due to the relief of London silver inventory shortage [2] - The fundamental reason was the excessive and rapid increase in precious metal prices, leading to a crowded long - position and subsequent long - stampede when there were market fluctuations [2] Analysis of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict's Impact on Gold Prices - In the short term, there are still differences between Russia and Ukraine on the cease - fire conditions, and the conflict may resume. In the long run, both sides are exhausted and accumulating chips for ending the conflict [4] - The end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict will be a short - term negative for gold prices, but in the medium to long term, the overall global situation of de - globalization and conflicts will support gold prices [4] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Policy on Gold Prices - The slightly lower - than - expected US inflation data in September increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut this week is about 98% - 99%, and the probability of a rate cut in December soared from 91% to 98.5%, which will support gold prices [5] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - After the short - term sharp decline, international gold prices have effectively tested the support at $4000 per ounce. The downward space is limited, and the market will enter a sideways consolidation phase before a potential new upward trend [6]