焦煤焦炭周报：煤矿端供应预期收紧，双焦期价震荡偏强-20251027

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts are oscillating strongly. The coking coal 2601 contract is short - term concerned about the pressure level around 1260, and the coke 2601 contract is short - term concerned about the pressure level around 1770. Also, pay attention to the 1.35 - 1.55 range change of the coking coal ratio [2][4][5][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1248.5 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 5.89%, and the mainstream spot market prices showed a strong trend. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1757.5 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 4.86%, and the mainstream spot market prices remained stable [4]. b) Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the daily output of clean coal was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly. The raw coal and clean coal inventories of mines and coal washing plants decreased [4]. - Demand Side: The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained high, supporting the demand for coking coal. Some coking enterprises limited production, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased. Although there is an expectation of supply tightening and the second round of coke price increase has started, most enterprises still purchase on - demand, and are resistant to high - priced coal. The coking coal price in online auctions continued to rise, and the transaction rate was high [5]. - Overall: Last week, the supply of coking coal increased, and the demand decreased slightly. The coking coal 2601 contract oscillated strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1260 [5]. Coke - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the production capacity of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. The daily output was 646,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 41 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The supply of coke decreased slightly. The coke inventory at ports increased [7]. - Demand Side: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The daily pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79%. The coke inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, and some regions purchased coke actively, but most still purchased on - demand [7]. - Overall: Last week, the supply of coke decreased, and the demand remained stable. The coke 2601 contract oscillated strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1770 [8]. c) Inventory | Commodity | Location | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Weekly Change (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 275.65 | 2.94 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 1029.70 | 32.33 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 782.96 | - 5.36 | | | Total | 2088.31 | 29.91 | | Coke | Port | 200.09 | 4.94 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 58.64 | 1.35 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 633.16 | - 6.28 | | | Total | 891.89 | 0.01 | [9]