Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical factors are on the rise, leading to an upward correction in oil prices. However, due to the repeated attitude of Trump and macro - instability, there is a risk of a sudden decline, so participation should be cautious. In the medium - term, geopolitical factors continuously cause disturbances, making it difficult to grasp the trading rhythm. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on price rallies due to the oversupply issue, with the WTI price expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From October 20th to 24th, international oil prices rebounded significantly. WTI returned above $60. As of October 24th, WTI settled at $61.5/barrel (+6.92%), Brent at $65.94/barrel (+8.08%), and INE SC at 466.2 yuan/barrel (+6.17%) [7]. - Various price - related data such as cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, and financial attribute data of crude oil are presented, showing different percentage changes [10]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Trump's remarks eased market pessimism. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index recovered after last week's decline, and the VIX volatility fell to a low level [12]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility rebounded, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of October 24th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 38.7, and the US dollar index was 98.9417 [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC - Related Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in September, rising by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. Most countries started to increase production, and the eight core OPEC+ countries accelerated their production increase [19]. - According to the IEA, the production of 9 OPEC member countries increased by 760,000 barrels per day in September. The overall over - production of these 9 countries decreased compared to the previous month, and the core 7 countries postponed their compensation cuts to the first half of next year [23]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day in September. Iran's production also increased month - on - month, rising by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day [26]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - OPEC data shows that Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day. IEA data shows a production of 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With increasing sanctions, Russia's production may remain at a relatively low level [34]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Supply - As of the week of October 24th, the number of active US oil rigs was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous month and a decrease of 60 year - on - year. The efficiency improvement in drilling and wells allows producers to maintain high - level production while controlling capital expenditure [38]. - As of the week of October 17th, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. High oil prices since June have boosted production enthusiasm [40]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of October 17th, the total daily demand for US refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 288,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. End - of - year demand may improve slightly [44]. - In the four - week period ending on October 17th, the average daily demand for US gasoline decreased by 126,000 barrels to 8.587 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The average daily demand for distillates increased by 28,000 barrels to 4.011 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The average daily consumption of kerosene - type products increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.712 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [48]. - As of October 24th, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $39.43/barrel. The crack spreads of gasoline and heating oil showed different trends [52]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 24th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.12/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.99/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better due to low inventory and restocking demand [56]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+6.75%), and imports increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+3.87%). Currently, China's oil demand is in the off - season, with processing volume, imports, and refinery operating rates declining [60]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 1.1 million barrels per day (up), 0.7 million barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.1 million, 0.7 million, and 1.4 million barrels per day [64]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 17th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels to 422.82 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. SPR inventories increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.56 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels [65]. - As of the four - week period ending on October 17th, US crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day to 1.715 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate increased by 2.9 percentage points to 88.6% [69]. - As of October 24th, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.54/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.37/barrel. The WTI spread maintained a back structure [71]. 4.2 Brent Spread - As of October 24th, the Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.74/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.98/barrel. The Brent spread also maintained a back structure, stronger than the WTI spread due to supply concerns in Europe [74]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - According to the EIA's October report, in 2025, the global daily oil supply is 105.85 million barrels, and the daily demand is 103.99 million barrels, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month. The supply - demand surplus pattern is clear this year [78]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamentals indicate the arrival of the off - season, and the term structure continues to flatten. Brent may maintain a stronger contango structure due to geopolitical supply concerns. However, if OPEC accelerates production in the near - term as the peak - season demand weakens, the term structure may change [81].
原油：制裁风险加剧，油价暴力反弹
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-27 04:57