双焦周报：供应扰动增加，关注成材端现实压力-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central safety production assessment inspections are upcoming, and the resumption time of coal mines in Wuhai is unknown, so there is an expectation of tightening coking coal supply. At the same time, be vigilant about the negative feedback pressure from the finished product end. In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce long positions in coking coal and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke. The reference range for the main coking coal contract is [1230, 1300], and for the main coke contract is [1690, 1830] [4]. - This week, coal - coke prices showed a strong upward trend, outperforming other black - series varieties. The main coking coal contract rose by 5.89%, and the main coke contract rose by 4.86%. Affected by factors such as safety supervision and environmental protection, domestic coal mine production decreased, and the iron - water output remained at around 2.4 million tons, with certain demand resilience, but downstream steel mill profits were significantly compressed [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, coal - coke prices were strong, with the main coking coal contract up 5.89% and the main coke contract up 4.86%. Domestic coal mine production decreased due to safety and environmental factors, and the iron - water output was around 2.4 million tons. The downstream steel mill profits were compressed. From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports of Mongolian coal decreased by 3.85%. Recently, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports decreased. The second round of coke price increase was postponed, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase [5]. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The warehouse receipt cost of different coking coal varieties at different locations is provided, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 in Tangshan on October 24, 2025, being 1233 yuan/ton [8]. Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average of the last month, and seasonality deviation of different coking coal contracts (January, May, September) are presented. For example, the basis of the January contract is 164, with a weekly change of - 23 [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal strengthened [14]. Supply - Mine: The daily average raw coal output of 523 mines this week was 1.9097 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average clean coal output was 761,100 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons [20]. - Coal Washery: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 266,700 tons, an increase of 56,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, an increase of 1.08% [23]. Import - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. The cumulative imports of Mongolian coal decreased by 3.85%. Details of imports from different countries are provided, including Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia, and others [24][26]. Auction Data - The coking coal auction data shows that the listed volume this week was 1.4937 million tons, an increase of 241,200 tons compared to the previous week; the成交 rate was 93.31%, an increase of 3.77 percentage points; the non -成交 rate was 6.69%, a decrease of 3.77 percentage points [30]. Total Inventory and Distribution - No specific summary of total inventory is provided. The inventory distribution shows changes in coking coal inventory in different locations over time [33][34]. Coke Spot Price - Coke spot prices remained stable [37]. Coking Profit - The coking profit decreased compared to the previous week. For example, the national coking profit on October 23, 2025, was - 41 yuan, a decrease of 28 yuan compared to the previous week [41]. Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average of the last month, and seasonality deviation of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are presented. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 120, with a weekly change of - 38 [43]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of coke strengthened [45]. Supply and Demand - Supply: No specific supply data is provided. - Demand: This week, the daily average coke consumption was 1.079 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons compared to the previous week; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points [51]. Total Inventory and Distribution - The total coke inventory on October 24, 2025, was 891,890 tons, a slight increase of 0.01 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory distribution shows changes in coke inventory in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports [56]. Registered Warehouse Receipts and Futures Positions - No specific summary of registered warehouse receipts and futures positions is provided. TOP20 Seats Net Long Positions - The net long positions of the TOP20 seats in coking coal and coke since July 1 are mentioned, but no specific data is summarized [62].