养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil futures price oscillated downward this week. With sufficient supply and weak expectations due to increased palm oil production in Malaysia and ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations, short - term upward drivers are lacking. It is advisable to wait and see, with support at 8100 - 8130 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - The rapeseed oil futures price had a weak adjustment. Although supply is tight, there is substitution pressure from soybean oil and palm oil. It may oscillate in the short - term and is bullish in the long - term. Aggressive strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9690 - 9710 and resistance at 9980 - 10000 [3]. - The palm oil futures price oscillated downward due to continuous production increases in Malaysia. As the production season is approaching, short - selling is not advisable. It may test the support at 9000 - 9050, with resistance at 9350 - 9400. Temporarily wait and see and monitor Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - The soybean meal price followed the rise of US soybeans. With sufficient domestic inventory, it has limited downward drivers. Consider waiting and see, with support at 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton and resistance at 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures price oscillated. Due to weak demand and improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has been weak. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract of the rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2250 - 2270 and resistance at 2380 - 2400 [4][5]. - The soybean No. 1 price was firm. With new - season soybeans on the market and strong demand for high - protein soybeans, look for long - buying opportunities, with support at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton and resistance at 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton [5]. - The peanut spot price was stable. With increased planting area and potential Sino - US trade impacts, it may oscillate in the short - term. Cautious investors can hold reverse spreads, with support at 7900 - 7550 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - The corn and corn starch futures prices continued to oscillate. Given the harvest situation and market dynamics, short - term upward space is limited. Consider reducing short positions on dips or looking for 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The live pig spot price was strong. With prices below the cost and production - reduction policies, the futures price hit a new low. Cautious investors can hold reverse spreads, and aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract below the cost [7]. - The egg spot price was stable and slightly strong. With expected consumption improvement in November and potential capacity reduction, aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract on dips, and avoid short - selling blindly [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil industries are expected to oscillate, with different supply - demand logics. Most products are recommended for temporary waiting and watching, while some have specific trading strategies such as reducing short positions on dips or long - buying on dips [11]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The table shows the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of different products in various sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and breeding [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It provides import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - The table presents weekly data on corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rates, and inventory of starch enterprises [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - Live Pigs: It shows key weekly data on the live pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [18]. - Eggs: It presents weekly key data on the egg market, including supply - side data (laying rate, culling data), demand - side data (inventory), and profit - related data [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Breeding End (Live Pigs, Eggs): It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices and chicken - culling prices [21][23][24]. - Oilseeds and Oils: - Palm Oil: It shows charts related to Malaysian palm oil production, inventory, export, import, and domestic inventory and trading [31][32][35]. - Soybean Oil: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill operating rates, and inventory [38][39]. - Peanuts: It presents charts of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory [45][47]. - Feed End: - Corn: It includes charts of corn spot prices, futures prices, basis, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [49][51][53]. - Corn Starch: It shows charts of corn starch spot prices, futures prices, basis, operating rates, and inventory [57][59][60]. - Rapeseed: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and pressing profit [62][63][66]. - Soybean Meal: It presents charts of US soybean growth rates and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71][73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It includes charts of historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as options trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios of corn [76][80][81]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It shows charts of warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [87][90][91].