有色金属周度策略-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is warming up after the repair of risk - aversion sentiment. With the adjustment of precious metals recently, many non - ferrous varieties have received support from capital inflows and题材, showing a recovery. Attention should be paid to the rotation and resonance of the sector. [12] - Policy expectations remain positive in the long - term. The 14th Five - Year Plan in China focuses on the real economy, and non - ferrous metals, as important raw material providers, will continue to be in the spotlight. [10] - Economic data in China shows both resilience and pressure. While the real estate sector is under pressure, the manufacturing sector performs well. There is also an increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro - logic: Sino - US trade relations have eased, risk preference has recovered, and the non - ferrous metals sector has shown a recovery under the leadership of copper. Policy expectations are positive, economic data shows a mixed picture, and interest - rate cut expectations are strengthening. [10][11] - Variety - specific analysis: - Copper: The US market's siphon effect causes a structural contradiction in global copper inventories. Supply constraints are increasing, while demand is expected to enter the peak season. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - arbitrage opportunity between the 2512 and 2601 contracts. [3][13] - Aluminum industry chain: For aluminum, aluminum oxide, and recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach is recommended. Buy out - of - the - money options for protection. [5] - Tin: The market is in a short - term bullish state. Pay attention to the impact of other non - ferrous varieties, the situation of the ore end, and macro - factors. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options. [5] - Zinc: The rebound is volatile. The upper pressure is around 22,500 - 22,600, and the lower support is around 21,700 - 21,800. Buy a bull spread at low levels or continue to sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - Lead: The price is in a short - term bullish consolidation. The lower support is 17,300 - 17,500, and the upper pressure is 17,800 - 18,000. A covered - call strategy is recommended. [6] - Nickel and stainless steel: For nickel, a slightly bullish approach at low levels is recommended. Stainless steel is in a range - bound state. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures weekly performance: Copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton, zinc rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton, aluminum rose 1.12% to 21,225 yuan/ton, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot prices and changes: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 86,530 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 0.36%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price was 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, etc. [22] 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Copper: Track data such as exchange copper inventories, SMM social copper inventories, copper concentrate smelting fees, etc. [23][24] - Zinc: Track zinc inventories, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot prices, etc. [25][26] - Aluminum: Track data related to aluminum inventories, prices, production capacity, etc. [34][36] - Aluminum oxide: Track spot prices, port inventories, production capacity, and import data. [37][38] - Tin: Track prices, inventories, and tin concentrate processing fees. [43][44] - Lead: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and processing fees. [50][51] - Nickel: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and spot premiums. [57][58] - Stainless steel: Track warehouse receipts, inventories, and production data. [62][63] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Copper: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2512 and 2601 contracts due to supply - side force majeure. [17] - Aluminum oxide: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2502 and 2509 contracts as the near - strong and far - weak structure returns. [17] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Copper: The implied volatility of copper options is high. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. [4] - Zinc: Buy a bull spread or sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - Aluminum: Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. [5]