黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Silver: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Judgment Logic: At the beginning of last week, gold prices dropped significantly from the high due to geopolitical risk mitigation, long - position profit - taking, and short - term liquidity tightening. Then it formed an oscillating balance in the range of $4100 - 4150 for three trading days [7]. - Future Outlook: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout [7]. - Mid - line Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against the technical correction caused by the departure of profit - taking positions. The lower support level is 898 - 903, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 960 - 965, and the lower support is 920 - 925. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [17][19][21][23][25]. Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [29]. - Judgment Logic: Last week, silver prices showed the characteristics of "rising, correcting, and then oscillating and consolidating". At the beginning of the week, due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the alleviation of liquidity tension, and long - position profit - taking, the price dropped significantly from the high, and then formed a short - term balance in the range of $48 - 48.7 for three trading days [29]. - Future Outlook: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the global de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists. Attention should be paid to the impact of the repeated geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices [29]. - Mid - line Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that silver would mainly fluctuate at a high level. It was recommended to buy on dips, and the lower support range was 10700 - 11000 [32]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main silver contract 2512 will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 11785 - 12085, and the lower support is 10915 - 11285. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [40][42][44].