Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 23. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand [4]. - On the supply side, the raw coal price is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is strong, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, resulting in a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - At the import end, the US dollar price has slightly declined, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly declined, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have slightly declined, the China - Europe price difference is oscillating, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. Iran has loaded 750,000 tons in October. Affected by sanctions, Iranian tenders have offered significant discounts, and there is an abundance of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - In terms of demand, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a decline in the operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Regarding inventory, the import arrival has slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range [4]. - Overall, the international plant operating rate has increased, some plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has increased to around 35,000 tons. Imports are gradually resuming, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the overall trading is light. The basis of spot prices is stable. The downstream demand is stable, the arrival volume is stable, the MTO operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short term, methanol is mainly oscillating weakly under the background of high inventory [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of October 23, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 84.89%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants was 67.80%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: In the period from October 18 - 24, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,069,909 tons, a decrease of 25,950 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 73.34%. Some Iranian plants had different operating conditions, and only the M5 large - scale plant in South American MHTL was in operation [5]. - Supply - Import: As of 14:00 on October 22, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol at ports was 352,000 tons, including 316,300 tons of foreign vessels (251,800 tons of visible and 64,500 tons of non - visible, with 188,800 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 35,700 tons of domestic vessels (6,500 tons in Jiangsu and 29,200 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of October 23, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.25%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from last week. The overall olefin industry operating rate decreased this week [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.97%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 74.4%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 38.87%. The overall capacity utilization rate of traditional downstream industries decreased compared with last week [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 51,300 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 18.57% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The inventory of production enterprises was 360,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 215,700 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 9,200 tons [5]. - Valuation: In terms of profit, the chemical coal in the northwest region rebounded, and the methanol price declined. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 480 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - Spot Prices: The price in Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), and the price in the north line was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan) [8]
进口扰动，甲醇延续震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-27 05:13