铜周报：宏观情绪偏暖，矿端支撑仍存-20251027

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Bullish Macro Sentiment, Persistent Support from the Mine End [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is supported by a weakening US dollar due to lower - than - expected CPI data, the start of the fifth round of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the optimistic expectations brought by the 15th Five - Year Plan. On the fundamental side, supply - side disruptions continue, and the long - term demand outlook for copper remains positive due to computing power construction. However, high copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply: The shortage of copper ore persists, with the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate at a historical low. As of October 24, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.68%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $42.5/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September, and it is expected to decline further in October [5]. - Demand: The market is transitioning to the off - season, and high copper prices are suppressing demand. As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - Inventory: The accumulation of domestic copper inventory has slowed down. As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory was 10.48 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.94%. As of October 23, the domestic social copper inventory was 181,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The LME copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Considering the bullish macro sentiment, the long - term tight supply of copper concentrates, and the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Macro Data: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. China's September social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year. The US September core CPI had the slowest growth rate in three months, strengthening the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year. The US October Markit PMI reached the second - highest level this year [15]. - Industry News: China's September scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year. The copper production of major mining companies such as BHP, MMG, and Vale increased in Q3 2025. Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved [17]. 3. Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning - Premium and Discount: High copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a slight discount, and the New York - London copper price difference fluctuated. The refined - scrap copper price difference first narrowed and then widened [24]. - Domestic and Overseas Positions: As of October 24, the SHFE copper futures open interest increased by 27.88% week - on - week, while the average daily trading volume decreased by 21.52% week - on - week. As of October 17, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 20.10% week - on - week [26]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply: The shortage of copper ore persists, and the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate remains at a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September and is expected to decline further [35]. - Downstream Operating Rates: As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - Imports and Exports: As of October 24, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic copper was stable, and the negative value of the spot import profit and loss of copper widened slightly. In September, China's refined copper imports increased by 2.91% year - on - year, scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year, and unforged copper and copper products imports increased by 1% year - on - year [42]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory decreased, the domestic social copper inventory accumulation slowed down, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [45].