长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade expectation between China and the US has improved, leading to increased volatility in the futures prices of oils and fats, and cost - driven upward movement in soybean meal prices [2][5]. - For soybean meal, the price of the M2601 contract is expected to rise slightly, but the short - term strengthening range is limited. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be more volatile in the short term, and a bullish outlook is recommended in the long term [7][85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 25, the East China spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal futures price followed the upward trend of US soybeans, while the spot price was restricted by inventory pressure [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed. There is an expectation of a decrease in US soybean yield. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing faster than last year. The domestic supply was abundant in October, with arrivals of about 8.5 million tons, but is expected to decrease to less than 8 million tons in November [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of the US soybean 01 contract is expected to fluctuate around 1020 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in November. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 3000 for M2601 long positions, gradually take profits at high prices, and lightly build long positions for M2605 and M2901 at low prices [7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 24, the main 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased, and the basis prices showed different trends [85][87]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased, while the export growth slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation. However, the Southeast Asian palm oil production will enter the reduction season in November. In Indonesia, the implementation of B50 in the second half of 2026 is planned, which is bullish for palm oil prices [85]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The price of US soybeans was strong due to the Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in Sino - US relations. The domestic soybean oil inventory is high in the short term, and the supply gap after November is expected to be narrowed [85]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The relationship between China and Canada has slightly improved, but the supply gap of rapeseed oil in China before November is difficult to solve, and the supply is still expected to be tight after November [85]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - After the Sino - US talks on October 26, the market sentiment improved, but there are still uncertainties at the APEC meeting at the end of October. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8050 - 8150, 8900 - 9000, and 9650 - 9500 for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts, and adopt a long - at - low strategy [85].