甲醇日评：反弹空间有限-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The rebound of methanol prices is limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in the possible reduction on the supply side, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Cost Data - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased from 2292.00 yuan/ton to 2272.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.87%); MA05 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2317.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%); MA09 decreased from 2285.00 yuan/ton to 2282.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price in Taicang decreased from 2240.00 yuan/ton to 2235.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%) [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Port Water Cargo Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - Methanol Profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 231.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.65%); natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit of Methanol: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 2.00 yuan/ton to 13.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (750.00%); East China MTO profit increased from - 770.57 yuan/ton to - 727.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.50 yuan/ton (5.65%); acetic acid profit decreased from 477.00 yuan/ton to 468.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.00 yuan/ton (-1.89%); MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 2. Important Information - Domestic Futures Price: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened. It opened at 2294 yuan/ton, closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 603,000 lots and an open interest of 1,080,950 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: The US dollar - denominated methanol market declined steadily. Some November - arriving cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country decreased by 2.5%. Sellers were under great sales pressure and had to reduce prices passively. The reference price in China was 239 - 263 US dollars/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].