碳酸锂周报：下游补库拉动，价格具有支撑-20251027

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 27, 2025 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints Supply - side - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 405 tons week - on - week to 23,170 tons, and September production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons [5]. - Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply [5]. - In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with extremely limited further cost - reduction space, and most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons [5]. - In September, carbonate lithium imports were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month [6]. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. Inventory - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend, with a 1,040 - ton decrease in factory inventory and a 1,987 - ton decrease in futures inventory [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and it is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be strong. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and in October, the cathode production schedule is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month [6]. - With profit recovery, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and warehouse receipts are continuously cancelled. It is expected that the short - term carbonate lithium price will be supported [6]. - As the verification and submission of reserve reports by Yichun mining enterprises are still undetermined and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. Prudent trading is recommended, and continuous attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production and related data of power batteries, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials, production of cathode materials (such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), average price of lithium iron phosphate, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials [9][10][12][14][19][21][24][25][27][29][33][35][39][41][43][45]