商品期货早班车-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. Gold prices may fluctuate significantly in the short - term [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin are recommended to be bought at low prices, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, and alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, steel prices are expected to rise with the support of macro - factors, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - In the agricultural products market, the situation varies by product. For example, soybeans are short - term bullish, while corn is expected to be weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, and some are recommended for short - selling or waiting and seeing [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The international gold market is in a weak oscillation. Domestic gold ETFs are flowing in, while overseas ETFs are reducing positions. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [1]. - Silver: Inventory changes vary in different markets. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: Prices rose on Friday. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the price of alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3]. - Industrial Silicon: The market is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot demand is high, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - Polysilicon: For different contracts, different trading strategies are recommended, such as buying at low prices for the 12 - month and later contracts [3]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy at low prices [3][4]. 3.3 Black Industry - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand is neutral to bullish, and prices are expected to rise with macro - support [5]. - Coking Coal: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Market - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and the domestic situation depends on the Sino - US tariff policy [6][7]. - Corn: Prices are expected to be weak with the pressure of new crop listing [7]. - Oils and Fats: Oils are weak, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [7]. - Eggs: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - Pigs: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [8]. - PVC: It is recommended to short - sell due to weak supply and demand [8]. - Rubber: The raw material price provides support, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [8][9]. - Glass: It is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract and long - buy the 05 contract for reverse arbitrage [9]. - PP: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - Crude Oil: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [9]. - Styrene: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9][10]. - Soda Ash: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position reverse arbitrage [10]. - Caustic Soda: It is recommended to wait and see due to large supply in Shandong [10].