长江期货甲醇周报：主力需求预计偏弱低位震荡-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. The closing price of the 01 contract on October 24 was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton. With multiple methanol plants under maintenance and reduced supply in some areas, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry declined, and the traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the price rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. On October 24, the closing price of the 01 contract was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton [3][4]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 194.35 million tons. The expected arrival volume at ports was 6.7 million tons. Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas [3][10]. Cost - The domestic thermal coal market price continued to rise, increasing by 26 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton, leading to a continuous increase in the cost of coal-based methanol [3][13]. Demand - The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points from last week. Some olefin plants in coastal areas reduced their production loads, and the operating rate declined slightly. The demand for externally purchased methanol is expected to weaken next week when a methanol project supporting an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia resumes operation. Additionally, a 200,000 - ton ethylene project in Henan is about to shut down, indicating weak demand from the main downstream industries. The traditional downstream demand for methanol remained weak, with low operating loads at traditional downstream factories and cautious replenishment based on rigid demand [3][17]. Inventory - The inventory of sampled methanol enterprises was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons from last week. The port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 2.08 million tons from last week. The inventory of enterprises and ports showed a divergence, with a decline in the inland operating rate and a recovery in arrival volume, narrowing the price difference between the inland and ports [3][23]. Main Operating Logic - Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas. The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry declined slightly, and the main demand in some areas weakened. The traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices drove up the methanol price, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Key Points of Attention - Changes in the macro - economic situation, methanol plant maintenance, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [3].