股指或震荡偏强，债市或有所承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For stock indices, due to positive statements from the China-US talks and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, they are expected to fluctuate with a stronger bias in the short - term and be positive in the medium - to - long - term. For bonds, positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive stance may put pressure on the bond market [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: Most stocks rose, with over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising. The total market turnover was 1.99 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Storage chips, commercial aerospace, computing hardware, and consumer electronics sectors led the gains, while coal, gas, real estate, and liquor sectors declined [10]. - Core View: Positive results from the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the Ministry of Commerce's plan to introduce more detailed measures, and lower - than - expected US CPI in September boosting rate - cut expectations contribute to the expected stronger - biased fluctuation of stock indices [10]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a stronger bias [10]. - Strategy Outlook: Expect a stronger - biased fluctuation, and pay attention to the resistance level at 4000 points [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bonds declined by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [12]. - Core View: Positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive attitude may put pressure on treasury bonds. Pay attention to important financial policies to be released at the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference [12]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may be adjusted [12]. - Strategy Outlook: Expect a pressured operation [12]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the active replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The simultaneous improvement in domestic and foreign demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and more active downstream raw material procurement after upstream price increases [19]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year change of the consumer price index was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month change was + 0.1%. The year - on - year change of the producer price index for industrial products was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month change was flat. The CPI was still negative year - on - year, but the year - on - year increase of the core CPI expanded. Gold jewelry and services were the main supports for the CPI year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of the PPI narrowed [22]. 3.2.3 Imports and Exports - In September 2025, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors, and the two - year average growth rate continued to decline [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%, and in August, it quickly rebounded to 20.4%. The recovery of profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of the upstream manufacturing industry rebounded, while that of the mid - and downstream industries declined. At the end of August, the nominal and real year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined, and the inventory turnover days remained the same while the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly [28][31][34]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, especially in the downstream. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and that of the service production index dropped to 5.6%. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation in the mid - level industry data of the production side [37]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [40]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales [43]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained at 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social - financing - caliber credit dropped to 6.4%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was less, mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of household medium - and long - term loans turned positive, but that of enterprise medium - and long - term loans was still less. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and non - bank deposits turned negative year - on - year [46].