沪锡日评：国内锡矿供给预期偏紧支撑锡价-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected tight supply of domestic tin ore supports the tin price. The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, and the decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. Despite the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the supply - demand tightness may not change, and the Fed's expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction, along with the preliminary Sino - US economic and trade negotiation plan, may make the Shanghai tin price trend stronger [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - Shanghai Tin Futures: On October 24, 2025, the closing price was 281,230, up 1,890 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,781 lots; the open interest was 38,076 lots; the inventory was 5,567 tons. The Shanghai tin basis (SMM 1 tin average price - futures price) was - 2,400, down 1,170 from the previous day. The spreads between different - month contracts also changed [1] - LME Tin Futures: On October 24, 2025, the LME 3 - month tin futures closing price (electronic trading) was 35,725, down 75 from the previous day. The LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 129, up 43 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 203.4, up 10 from the previous day. The LME tin global inventory was 2,750 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are resuming production slowly, and Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines. The decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared with last week [1] - Demand: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. High tin prices have led downstream buyers to make fewer purchases on a just - in - time basis [1] - Inventory: The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week [1] 3. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 290,000 - 300,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 and the resistance level around 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]