格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is short - term bearish [1] 2. Core View - Last week, the coking coal and coke showed overall strong performance. However, with short - term positive factors exhausted and negative news emerging, it is expected that the coking coal and coke futures will fluctuate weakly this week [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 5.71% from the weekly opening price; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1767.0, up 3.97% from the weekly opening price [1] 3.2 Important News - Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 30 to November 1 and pay a state visit to South Korea. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China and the US are in close communication about a possible meeting between the two leaders [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It prohibits increasing the total steel production capacity in key areas and restricts the capacity replacement ratio to at least 1.5:1 [1] - Some cities in Hebei, including Tangshan, launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Some steel mills in Tangshan extended sintering machine production restrictions until the end of October and焖炉30% of blast furnace capacity, which is estimated to affect 409,500 tons of hot metal production in 4.5 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Last week, the supply of Mongolian coking coal was affected by multiple factors, and the number of trucks passing through Ganqimaodu declined significantly, causing the domestic coking coal spot price to remain strong. The second round of coke price increase was implemented due to cost support. The steel capacity replacement draft restricts the capacity replacement ratio, and some steel mills in Hebei cut production due to environmental protection requirements. With short - term positive factors exhausted and negative news, the coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Close long positions and wait for the market to decline [1]