甲醇周报（MA）：内地烯烃外采提供支撑，甲醇市场先跌后微幅回暖-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - Products with increased operating load: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - Products with decreased operating load: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - Products with stable operating load: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - Inland inventory: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - Port inventory: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Arbitrage: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]