粕类周报：短期震荡，关注中美政策-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - sided trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies. Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillatory trend remains unchanged. Traders should focus on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather changes in South America [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply factor is rated as neutral. USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year at 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be lowered. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%. Although there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas recently, its impact is expected to be limited. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain. Under the current Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - Demand: The demand for soybean meal is slightly bullish, while that for rapeseed meal is slightly bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good, while the downstream trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - Inventory: The inventory factor for soybean meal is slightly bearish, and for rapeseed meal is slightly bullish. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being destocked, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is rated as neutral [5]. - Profit: The profit factor is slightly bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - Valuation: The valuation is rated as neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [5]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy factor is slightly bullish. From October 24th to 27th, China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Malaysia, and a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is expected at the APEC Summit on October 30th [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [32][38]. - Soybean Production and Sales: The US soybean sowing rate and excellent - good rate data are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined. Data on NOPA soybean crushing volume, USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume, and US soybean export sales are also provided, but this week's US soybean export sales data has not been released [47][52][65]. - Import and Cost: The CNF premium of soybeans and the gross profit of imported soybean futures are shown. The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed are also presented, along with the US dollar - to - real exchange rate [72][75]. - Domestic Inventory and Consumption: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is also analyzed. The opening rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided. The trading volume and pick - up of soybean meal are normal and at a high level, respectively, while those of rapeseed meal are cautious. Feed monthly output data is also presented [81][102][114]. - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: The breeding profits of live pigs, broilers, and laying hens are analyzed. The price of live pigs has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. Data on the inventory and slaughter volume of livestock and poultry are also provided [116][120][123]